tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-67277206707871214272024-03-14T02:39:46.332+08:00Lone VoiceA journal on tradingUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger118125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-18428345715725461942008-11-28T20:18:00.003+08:002008-11-28T20:24:30.704+08:00HK Market views are all forwarded to Absolute Traders' Newsletter.All of my views in the HK market and sometimes currencies are being submitted to Absolute Traders site. It can be read by all the members and non-members who have wished to avail of the subscription. That explains the reason why this blog has been dormant for a long time.<br /><br />If there are any questions on getting them via mail, kindly post a message to<br /><br /><span class="nfakPe">Gwen</span> P <span class="nfakPe">Nava</span><br />Absolute Traders & Consulting Services Inc.<br />mobile: 09178040060 / 09228633299<br />ym/skype id: gwenpnava<br /><a href="mailto:gwen.nava@absolutetraders.com" target="_blank"><span class="nfakPe">gwen</span>.<span class="nfakPe">nava</span>@absolutetraders.com</a><br /><a href="http://www.absolutetraders.com/newsletter" target="_blank">http://www.absolutetraders.<wbr>com/newsletter</a><br /><br />Thanks.<br /><br />- NixUnknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-35926337119351171892008-10-14T06:03:00.003+08:002008-10-14T06:04:48.055+08:00Just hit the jackpotCouldn't sleep as I compute the profits I'm going to make in hk, philippines, US and currencies today.<br /><br />lalalalalalalalalalalallalalalallalalalalallalalalalla<br /><br />ok. perhaps im taking some of my profits so that I am prudent, let the rest of the profits run.<br /><br /><br />-nixUnknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-64263840313796204502008-10-13T18:37:00.000+08:002009-03-02T19:44:45.057+08:00<br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Short<br />term Bottom Confirmed!</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">As of<br />5:58 pm last October 13,2008, US Dow equity index futures are up 361<br />points closing at 8731, with an intraday high of 8,801. Oil which<br />would represent commodities, have started picking up going to 81.48,<br />up 3.78 from last Friday’s close which sent it intraday trading<br />at 77.00, in its lowest. AUD/USD which has been the gauge of<br />investor fear has also started to find a lot of people’s risk<br />appetites coming back, bouncing from its low of 0.6370 last Friday to<br />open .6652 today and managing to stay at 0.6702 as of writing. On<br />the local currency front, PHP also started to appreciate signaling<br />that a short term top in the USDPHP trade has been formed. We don’t<br />discount that the USDPHP chart’s long term trend is still going<br />up but that it will correct short term, which is a sign that risk<br />aversion is dissipating. <br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_246f6hg93g7_b" NAME="graphics1" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=599 HEIGHT=313 BORDER=0></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_247x7q5njk5_b" NAME="graphics2" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=600 HEIGHT=366 BORDER=0></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_24853h2ftnt_b" NAME="graphics3" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=599 HEIGHT=359 BORDER=0></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_249mb7vdvcd_b" NAME="graphics4" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=600 HEIGHT=367 BORDER=0></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">I copied<br />the chart of Asia pacific indices this Monday to note that the rally<br />was broad based. Note that Nikkei and the Japanese indices are only<br />down mainly because they are closed for a holiday. The 1% uptick in<br />the Philippines is puny compared to the whopping 10.24% gain in the<br />Hang Seng Index. <br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_250gfrh5nd2_b" NAME="graphics5" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=600 HEIGHT=335 BORDER=0></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">If the<br />above charts do not convince you that a short term bottom is in play,<br />perhaps talking about credit default swaps, TED spreads would help<br />but I am not gonna spend another page convincing you anymore. That<br />is not the main play. Let’s talk about that 10.24% rally in<br />the HK market this October 13, 2008 which actually stemmed from the<br />11% rally of the US indices last Friday, as well as all the<br />government interventions that the G7 did last Saturday.</P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Daily<br />Chart of HK Market</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_251htj8pjcv_b" NAME="graphics6" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=599 HEIGHT=343 BORDER=0></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">You don’t<br />need a single MACD to tell you that this volume accompanied with<br />today’s bullish reversal will lift the index back to 18,000<br />levels. <br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_252zrq4ss5_b" NAME="graphics7" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=600 HEIGHT=360 BORDER=0></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">As they<br />say, those who throw the towel usually find themselves too numb and<br />callous to see that <B>this bear market reversal is the REAL THING.<br />This is the short term bottom all traders have been hoping to happen!<br /> </B><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Stock<br />Picks:</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>China<br />Tracker Fund (2823 HK)</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">Note the<br />large increase in volume accompanied with the upsurge. <br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Support:<br />9.00</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Resistance:<br />11.20</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Entry:<br />9.50 or lower</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_253dwrbz68q_b" NAME="graphics8" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=599 HEIGHT=345 BORDER=0></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>China<br />Cosco (1919 HK)</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">Note the<br />large increase in volume accompanied with the upsurge as well as the<br />increased volume activity of China Cosco for the past week alone. <br />This tells traders that there is real demand willing to buy China<br />Cosco. This is my top pick that will deliver substantial returns. <br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Support:<br />4.70</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Resistance:<br />6.00/7.00</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Entry:<br />5.10 or lower</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_254d75t6vgh_b" NAME="graphics9" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=600 HEIGHT=341 BORDER=0></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_255gx6dgqf9_b" NAME="graphics10" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=599 HEIGHT=367 BORDER=0></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Disclosures:</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Author<br />is long the following HK shares: 2823 HK @ 9.10, 1919 HK@ 4.66</B></P><br /><br>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-18472433982195344452008-10-03T18:14:00.002+08:002008-10-03T18:29:35.468+08:00I have nothing boldly interesting to say. <br />I simply wanted to write out my thoughts.<br />So I begin.<br /><br />I seriously sometimes think about the other things that I could do, which I could have fun doing, with people I probably would be happy being with, doing something unrelated to trading or with any resemblance with the markets that is both challenging, rewarding and something I can want to wake my mornings up to.<br /><br />I don't know why I suddenly am feeling this way. While steep losses can surely sway a person's mind in changing careers, I surely feel that this is not the case with me. I love my job. It's something I see myself doing in the next ten years. I'm not kidding. However, of course, there could be some twists and turns, which I want to do, if I can do, at some point in my life. Say, take night classes listening to Wall Street finance professionals, touring around the world learning about companies, managing funds say for teachers welfare through people's donations instead of placing them in time deposits, and giving dividends to the school. Maybe buying a place, learning to cook, trying out a sport, and learning to be more of a girl, whatever that means. <br /><br />However, learning about the markets is hard enough and time consuming. Taking any other additional stuff to do (say studying something like creative arts/ multimedia designing) would be fun but would entail commitment and responsibility. Plus, it's not like a long term thing. It's just a hobby which will quickly fade away to something I "used to do". Such as taking photography lessons, taking photoshop classes and the like. <br /><br />I'm concerned as well with the way I have been living my life. I feel like a hermit at times. A hermit is someone who likes living alone right? Ok. I think I have been living like a recluse these couple of days. <br /><br />Hmm, I dont really know. I have no particular set of friends that I will constantly be around with. It's not that I don't have friends. I just don't develop any close connections so much. It's always just about playing basketball. Not so much caring about other people's lives really. Friday is being spent with people who help me learn what God can teach me. Saturdays and Sundays are erratic but they're usually booked, and I usually do things that I don't particularly like doing but, well still do.<br /><br />brb. need to eat fast. But I'll continue the train of thought.<br /><br />-nixUnknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-23701877586488280222008-09-22T18:44:00.000+08:002009-03-02T19:44:45.062+08:00<br /><br /> <br /> <br /> <br /><br /><div type="HEADER"><br /> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.46in;"><br><br><br /> </p><br /></div><br /><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;" align="justify"><br /><font color="#000080"><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2"><b>HK<br />Market </b></font></font></font><br /></p><br /><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;" align="justify"><br /><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2">Market opened higher by<br />500 points starting at 19,869.02 but this proved to be the high of<br />the day as traders used the opportunity to sell their shares. The<br />pullback due to profit taking from the two big sharp rallies allowed<br />the market to correct by as much as 650 points down falling to<br />19,137.67 but quickly found buyers pushing the index higher to close<br />304.47 points up at 19,632.20. </font></font></p><br /><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;"><font size="2"><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><b>Technical<br />View: </b>Market may be due some short term choppy trading due to<br />the sharp rallies from previous days. Use intraday entry points as<br />the bias is still up with short term resistance seen at 20,500 to<br />20,800. It should be noted that the Hang Seng Index closed in a<br />hammer candlestick chart which is still bullish despite the 3300<br />points up from the Thursday lows. </font></font><br /></p><br /><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;"><font size="2"><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><b>Recommendation:<br /> </b>Lighten down on positions bought two days ago, look to buy<br />issues on a pullback. </font></font><br /></p><br /><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;"><img src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_242gm7m6qhr_b" name="graphics1" width="642" align="bottom" border="0" height="603"><br /></p><br /><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;"><img src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_243fw8n6mcz_b" name="graphics2" width="642" align="bottom" border="0" height="603"></p><br /><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;"><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2"><i>Disclosure:<br /> After recommendation, author has sold Tencent shares(700HK) at 62<br />and 63 levels after buying last Thursday at 51.90 for a rough 20%<br />profit. Author has also made tsupita trading, adding more shares<br />last Friday at 58.50 level and selling at 60.60 last Friday. Author<br />is currently long 2600 or Chalco at a price of 6.10. This was bought<br />last Sept 22,2008.</i></font></font></p><br /><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;"><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2"><i><b>Stock<br />Pick: 2600 or Chalco</b></i></font></font></p><br /><br /><br /><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;"><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2"><i>Chalco<br />has rallied from 4.6 to as high as 6.10 representing 30% profit from<br />the lows. While the rally seems substantial for some profit taking,<br />the chart is clearly showing that a MACD divergence is still in play<br />and strong volumes confirm more potential upside.<br></i></font></font></p><br /><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;"><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2"><i><b>Recommendation:<br />Trade using a small position size, so as to have a wide proper stop.</b></i></font></font></p><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;"><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2"><i><b>Support:<br />5.50</b></i></font></font></p><br /><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;"><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2"><i><b>Resistance:<br />7.00</b></i></font></font></p><br /><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;"><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2"><i><b>Preferred<br />Entry: 5.80</b></i></font></font></p><br /><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;"><img src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_244fj8ddwht_b" name="graphics3" width="642" align="bottom" border="0" height="603"></p><br /><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;"><br><br><br /></p><br /><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;"><br><br><br /></p><br /><p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0.17in; line-height: 100%;"><br><br><br /></p><br /><div type="FOOTER"><br /> <p class="western" style="margin-top: 0.46in; margin-bottom: 0.17in;"><br /> <br><br><br /> </p><br /></div><br /><br>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-67857823280384263422008-09-20T08:23:00.000+08:002009-03-02T19:44:45.066+08:00<br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Theory of Unintended<br />Consequences. (A collection of stuffs I got from the net- enjoy-<br />Lonevoice)</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; font-weight: medium">My<br />boss and I believe that those who lost money deserve it. Those who<br />held financial shares deserve their losses. They deserve the loss<br />for poor risk management, poor technical analysis and poor<br />fundamentals or lack of knowledge in buying the instruments that<br />they've done. However, here comes Hank Paulson and his team,<br />rewarding the sinners and punishing the innocent ones who did their<br />grunt work analyzing the companies that are bound to go belly-up. An<br />official from California public employees' retirement system called<br />shortsellers- greedy predators-. We'll see the ending. <br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; font-weight: medium"><BR><br /></P><br /><H4 CLASS="western"><FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A HREF="http://dealbreaker.com/2008/09/post-63.php"><B>Just<br />Putting It Out There , chart from</B></A></U></FONT> <FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A HREF="http://dealbreaker.com/profile/BLevin"><B>Bess<br />Levin</B></A></U></FONT></H4><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; font-weight: medium"><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_237d64429f9_b" NAME="graphics1" ALIGN=LEFT WIDTH=692 HEIGHT=495 BORDER=0><BR CLEAR=LEFT><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; font-weight: medium"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; font-weight: medium"><I>Disclosure:<br />I am long EEM (the emerging markets fund) through call options. <br />Call options allow you to lose only the capital that you put in. <br />Nothing more, nothing less. Being defensive :) -Nix</I></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; font-weight: medium"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; font-weight: medium"><br /><I>If I had principles, I would have lost my shirt keeping shorts in<br />this massive short squeeze. I have no conviction ideas. I told my<br />boss, I am a disciplined trader, but that I didn't have principles.<br />He laughed . It's true, in this business, we are simply disciplined<br />traders. We will reinstate our shorts next time. Currently, I will<br />go long troubled companies in the financial industry, perhaps<br />intraday trading them due to massive short covering, but not as<br />conviction longs for position trading. </I><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; font-weight: medium"><br /><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Read the best<br />commentaries I've heard from Wall Street active bloggers on the best<br />market manipulation ever :)</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western">Here’s the deal. The problem was never<br />subprime. The problem was reckless and uninhibited gambling. That is<br />now being rewarded and repentance granted. All sins washed away. Ah,<br />but not without payment from someone to balance the books. You soon<br />will be getting the bill. Watch for it.</P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">Comment by stockwatch -</P><br /><P CLASS="western"><BR><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western">Whew! All of the globes financial problems wiped<br />away in one day!</P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">Comment by stockwatch -<br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">Traders who have sought<br />to profit from the financial crisis by betting against bank stocks<br />were attacked on two continents on Thursday. -By Vikas Bajaj and<br />Jonathan Glater</P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><BLOCKQUOTE CLASS="western"><I>In these unusual and extraordinary<br />circumstances, we have concluded that, to prevent substantial<br />disruption in the securities markets, <B>temporarily prohibiting</B><br />any person from effecting a <B>short sale</B> in the publicly traded<br />securities of certain financial firms…<B>is in the public<br />interest and for the protection of investors to maintain or restore<br />fair and orderly securities markets. - from news pages</B></I></BLOCKQUOTE><br /><P CLASS="western">Here’s the translation: As Republicans,<br />we’re all about free markets. Until they start to get messy and<br />then we’re not. Clearly, the folks at the SEC were very busy<br />last night and it should be even clearer to anyone who has even<br />cursory knowledge of the stock market that bad politics are getting<br />in the way of rational market behavior.</P><br /><P CLASS="western">Short sellers may make for an easy target, but<br />that doesn’t mean it’s the right one. What about the<br />people — the executives and the directors — who were<br />making the daily decisions that drove many of these companies to the<br />brink (or in the case of Lehman, bankruptcy)? Shouldn’t they<br />shoulder at least some of the blame? <br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western">Here’s a radical idea: Let’s leave the<br />new rules to comedians like Bill Maher. That’s because coming<br />up with hastily put together new rules — not to mention new<br />forms that seem unlikely to address the real problem — makes<br />for both bad markets and bad politics. <br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western">-<B>Michelle Leder </B><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western"><B>Welcome to USA - Where profits are privatized<br />and losses are socialized. - </B><SPAN STYLE="font-weight: medium">heard<br />this somewhere (just can't remember where).</SPAN></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">There is no question<br />that we are going to spend a lot of public money to address the<br />current crisis. We have already put a very extraordinary amount at<br />risk. The question we should be asking is not whether or how much,<br />but to whom and for what. The financial crisis we are facing is a<br />symptom of a much larger economic and social crisis. Wall Street is<br />not the source of the pain. On the contrary, the financial sector has<br />been put this decade primarily in the service of hiding, literally of<br />papering over, unsustainable trends in the current account, income<br />distribution, human and physical capital deterioration, and the<br />sectoral composition of the American economy. The conventional wisdom<br />is that this is a financial crisis, and that so far "Main<br />Street" has been largely insulated from the catastrophe. That is<br />rubbish. The cancer is on Main Street, and the tumor has been growing<br />there for years. Wall Street provided drugs to hide the pain and keep<br />us going, palliative but not curative. What is happening now is those<br />drugs are wearing off. The American economy is fundamentally unsound,<br />and has been for some time. We would have noticed sooner, were it not<br />for financial methamphetamine conjured by mad scientists in lower<br />Manhattan from a whirlwind of foreign central bank money. <br /></P><br /><UL><br /> <LI><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">Steve Randy<br /> Waldman</P><br /></UL><br /><P CLASS="western"><BR><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western">How can short-selling destroy a good company?</P><br /><P CLASS="western">The simple answer is that it can't. <br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western">First of all, short-selling can't force down your<br />share price. Short-selling only forces down your share price if<br />buyers don't emerge to defend your share price. <br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western"><B>Banning short-selling cannot protect a bad<br />stock.</B> If nobody is willing to buy XYZ at a price higher than<br />$.02 a share, then the price at which XYZ will trade will be $.02 a<br />share (or lower). It doesn't matter whether you have short-sellers or<br />not.</P><br /><P CLASS="western"><B>What drives stock prices down is the lack of<br />people willing to buy them at the higher price. If the company has<br />sufficient value, there will be sufficient buyers.</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">-Arnold King</P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Great Articles (Some<br />are excerpts):</B></P><br /><H2 CLASS="western"><I>Wall Street Crisis Not Quite 1929</I></H2><br /><P CLASS="western"><b><I>David Wessel</I></b><i><I><br />reports:</I></i></P><br /><P CLASS="western"><I>Is 2008 The Equivalent of 1929?</I></P><br /><P CLASS="western">“<I>It is not,” writes Berkeley<br />economist and blogger </I><b><I>Brad DeLong</I></b><I>, who<br />is an </I><b><I>Obama </I></b><I>backer. </I><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western">“<I>The most important reason it is not is<br />that </I><b><I>Bernanke </I></b><I>and </I><b><I>Paulson<br /></I></b><I>are both focused like laser beams on not making the<br />same mistakes as were made in 1929,” he writes on his </I><FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A HREF="http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2008/09/is-2008-our-192.html"><I>blog</I></A></U></FONT><I>.<br /></I><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western"><I>Back then, the Hoover Administration and,<br />particularly, Fed misread the economy, and made a bad situation<br />worse, a case made definitively by Milton Friedman and amplified by<br />current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in his academic work</I></P><br /><P CLASS="western">“<I>They are also focused, but not quite as<br />much, on not making the mistakes made by Arthur Burns in the 1970s,”<br />DeLong adds. </I><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western"><I>In 1970s, then Fed Chairman Arthur Burns<br />misread the economy and is widely regarded to have bowed to political<br />pressure from Richard Nixon. He kept interest rates too low and<br />sparked the Great Inflation that ended only with the very high<br />interest rates imposed by a subsequent Fed chairman, Paul Volcker. </I><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western">“<I>And they are also focused, but not quite<br />as much, on not making the mistakes the Bank of Japan made in the<br />1990s,” DeLong adds.</I></P><br /><P CLASS="western"><I>The Bank of Japan misread its economy, the<br />consequences of a burst asset bubble and the devastating effects of<br />deflation, and is widely blamed for contributing to a decade of<br />stagnation.</I></P><br /><P CLASS="western">“<I>They want to make their own, original,<br />mistakes,” DeLong </I><FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A HREF="http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2008/09/is-2008-our-192.html"><I>concludes</I></A></U></FONT><I>.</I></P><br /><P CLASS="western"><FONT COLOR="#000080"><A HREF="http://www.footnoted.org/sec-stuff/when-politics-and-markets-supercollide/"><B><SPAN STYLE="text-decoration: none"><SPAN STYLE="font-style: normal">Great<br />Charts from Bespoke Investment Group</SPAN></SPAN></B></A></FONT></P><br /><P CLASS="western"><FONT COLOR="#000080"><A HREF="http://www.footnoted.org/sec-stuff/when-politics-and-markets-supercollide/"><SPAN STYLE="font-weight: medium"><SPAN STYLE="text-decoration: none"><SPAN STYLE="font-style: normal"><FONT COLOR="#000000">Below<br />we highlight the percentage changes that global equity markets have<br />seen from their lows yesterday. As shown, Russia is currently<br />up 20.2% today. Yes, the country's bear market has reversed and<br />turned into a new bull in one trading day! Hong Kong is up the<br />second most at 18.7%, followed by China, Singapore and the UK. <br />Japan and Australia have seen the most </FONT></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="font-weight: medium"><SPAN STYLE="text-decoration: none"><FONT COLOR="#000000">muted</FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN STYLE="font-weight: medium"><SPAN STYLE="text-decoration: none"><SPAN STYLE="font-style: normal"><FONT COLOR="#000000"><br />gains at 5% to 6%. </FONT></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></A></FONT><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_238d5mzr7f7_b" NAME="graphics2" ALIGN=LEFT WIDTH=443 HEIGHT=295 BORDER=0><BR CLEAR=LEFT><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><I><B>Massive<br />Shortsqueeze through market manipulation at work in Statestreet stock<br />(STT)</B></I></P><br /><P CLASS="western"><BR><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="font-style: normal"><B>Contrast one day's<br />news article with the chart :)</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="font-weight: medium"><I>News<br />article from WSJ (Sept 18,2008 145pm) from David Gaffen:</I></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY><SPAN STYLE="font-weight: medium"><I>The<br />marauders, having burned through the wreckage of the investment<br />banking stocks, are now moving on to </I></SPAN><b><SPAN STYLE="font-weight: medium"><I>asset<br />managers and fiduciaries heavily involved in money-market funds</I></SPAN></b><SPAN STYLE="font-weight: medium"><I>,<br />where investors are worried about their holdings in these normally<br />safe assets.</I></SPAN></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY><SPAN STYLE="font-weight: medium"><I>The<br />stocks most heavily hit include </I></SPAN><FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A HREF="http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?symbol=stt&type=djn&mod=WSJBlog"><SPAN STYLE="font-weight: medium"><I>State<br />Street</I></SPAN></A></U></FONT><SPAN STYLE="font-weight: medium"><I><br />Corp., down 42% on the day to $37.96 a share, </I></SPAN><FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A HREF="http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?symbol=gnw&type=djn&mod=WSJBlog"><SPAN STYLE="font-weight: medium"><I>Genworth<br />Financial</I></SPAN></A></U></FONT><SPAN STYLE="font-weight: medium"><I>,<br />down 59%, </I></SPAN><FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A HREF="http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?symbol=bk&type=djn&mod=WSJBlog"><SPAN STYLE="font-weight: medium"><I>Bank<br />of New York Mellon</I></SPAN></A></U></FONT><SPAN STYLE="font-weight: medium"><I>,<br />down 21%, and </I></SPAN><FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A HREF="http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?symbol=ntrs&type=djn&mod=WSJBlog"><SPAN STYLE="font-weight: medium"><I>Northern<br />Trust</I></SPAN></A></U></FONT><SPAN STYLE="font-weight: medium"><I><br />Corp., which has lost 16%. </I></SPAN><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; font-weight: medium"><br /><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><I><B>G<IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_239szdxw7g7_b" NAME="graphics3" ALIGN=LEFT WIDTH=519 HEIGHT=732 BORDER=0><BR CLEAR=LEFT>reat<br />Pictures to note:</B></I></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><I><B>P<IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_240cj29k4hj_b" NAME="graphics4" ALIGN=LEFT WIDTH=268 HEIGHT=199 BORDER=0><BR CLEAR=LEFT>icture<br />courtesy from David Gaffen</B></I></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; font-weight: medium"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; font-weight: medium"><I>Note:<br /> While seeing that the dollar is literally being burned in the system<br />today, I am bullish the dollar against the Phillipine peso in the<br />long run (I.e. my view is that php hits to 49 first rather than 43 a<br />year from now mainly because of the deleveraging theme, and that USD<br />has bottomed out. Europe and UK have no room to hike rates and this<br />will cause an interest differential play. Arguing about my view<br />lengthily may be written for a different topic. Short term, of<br />course I am aware that the USD is being battered which provides me<br />one of the best entries to go long usdphp perhaps at 46, but i'll let<br />the market tell me the price.) </I><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><br>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-66306258221946696252008-09-20T08:21:00.000+08:002009-03-02T19:44:45.069+08:00<br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>A<IMG SRC="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpJt0o54BcT62KMOw4XATkSEfXkGjQPuL_5pxdt-xlylb-y1KPlJB86lOLl51t0Z6-zXikOjYFcvaRmUgXtjyNkEuLBWRok8dY1GOVYdSFXk47hddYIdtclwVpDXuS-JEhNZtRfNzZ4tE/s320/squeeze.gif" NAME="graphics1" ALIGN=LEFT HSPACE=5 VSPACE=5 WIDTH=208 HEIGHT=208 BORDER=0><br />short squeeze theory </B><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; font-weight: medium"><I>Why<br />I think 17s 18s and 19s of the month are more dangerous </I><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">– <B>Lonevoice</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><B>Note: This text<br />may not be readable for those who do not trade options yet. Just to<br />clarify for those who may not have basic understanding of options:</B></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">Calls- A call option is<br />a right, not an obligation, to buy shares at a specific strike price.</P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">Puts- A put option is a<br />right, not an obligation to sell shares at a specific strike price.</P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">There are expiration<br />dates, deltas (volatility range), open interest volumes (liquidity),<br />strike price that need to be taken into account, other than the stock<br />price to calculate the option value. Nevertheless, it's not<br />altogether rocket science in order to trade these things.</P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">At the money(ATM) calls<br />for example simply mean – the call option's strike price is the<br />same as the stock price (or whatever the underlying asset is)</P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">In the money calls mean<br />that the stock's price is now higher than the call option's strike<br />price.</P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">Out of the money(OTM)<br />calls mean that the stock's price is lower than the call option's<br />strike price.</P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">_________________________________________________________________________________</P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">I always wanted to back<br />up my theory that we will always be in for a surprise during 17s, 18s<br />and 19s of the month mainly because options will soon expire those<br />days. Remember August 17,2007? March 18,2008? and more recently<br />September 18,2008? <br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">I read an article<br />written by Adam Warner last August 20,2007 who maintains a blog at<br />the Daily Options Report and here is the reason why it may be what I<br />think it to be. He writes:</P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR><I>So how does<br />putting a market-moving Fed action as close to expiration as humanly<br />possible have the maximal turbo effect? One word:</I><FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A HREF="http://adamsoptions.blogspot.com/2005/03/gamma-gamma-is-rate-of-change-of-delta.html"><I><br />Gamma.</I></A></U></FONT> <br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><I><BR>Consider a world<br />where there is just one option, ATM SPY calls. They have a 50 </I><FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A HREF="http://adamsoptions.blogspot.com/2005/03/delta-amount-options-price-will-change.html"><I>delta</I></A></U></FONT><I>,<br />so let's say there is an open interest of 100 where each call gives<br />you the right to buy 100 SPY's. If they are ATM, the calls have<br />approximately a 50 delta, so presumably the call shorts own 5000<br />SPY's, while the longs are short the SPY's.<BR><BR>But the delta<br />changes as the stock moves. That's the gamma. Let's say the gamma is<br />10, so in other words if SPY lifts a point, the calls now have a 60<br />delta. The longs can thus sell 1000 SPY's up a point, while the<br />shorts have to buy 1000 up a point in order to both stay flat. The<br />quantities are always going to offset, options are a zero sum game,<br />so it becomes all about the urgency of the two sides.<BR><BR>And who<br />has more urgency lately? Clearly the options shorts. So it stands to<br />reason that the higher gamma gets, the more turbo in the stock.<BR><BR>The<br />closer you get to expiration, the higher the gamma. And the more<br />pressure on the side that is squeezed. In other words with a few days<br />to go, maybe that gamma is 20. So a one point move causes the<br />scrambling shorts to buy 2000, while the longs can sell 2000,<br />probably at prices more their liking. <BR><BR>And what if it turns<br />back down to the strike? The option shorts now have to sell back<br />those 2000 shares to flatten out again. And so on and so forth.<BR><BR>And<br />then the next day maybe they have 30 gamma near the money. Even more<br />pressure in each direction exerted by the shorts in this<br />environment.<BR><BR>Which brings us to Friday. Gamma is essentially<br />infinity in the SPX August options. They have stopped trading. They<br />are merely cashed out at the "opening" price (defined as<br />whatever the calculation formula spits out taking the opening tick<br />from each component). The rate cut and market pop comes an hour and<br />change ahead of the open. All a call short can do to defend his<br />position is chase futures/ETF's up. Some OTM calls he is short now<br />have a 100 delta between now and the open. Sure there is an<br />offsetting long that can sell the futures/ETF's, but who has the<br />urgency here? Clearly the squeezed short. And thus the kindling wood<br />lit by the Bernanke match.<BR><BR>Throw in a similar dymamic on all<br />other index/ETF options that expire at the end of the day, and Big<br />Ben literally found the perfect minute to cause the most pain to<br />options sellers. </I><br /></P><br /><br>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-18857214475893511062008-09-20T05:11:00.004+08:002008-09-20T05:52:59.405+08:00The greatest trade ever made -so far-The action in the Dow Jones for the past two days is described by financial experts as "the mother of all short squeezes" and that the implications of the government's action has changed Wall Street FOREVER. The term that we are living in very interesting times is an understatement. I am privileged that I started trading and watching the markets only since Jan 2008. Previously, I was telling myself that it is such a sad thing that I never experienced the bull market but the learning experience of 2008 has really been great. It's worth a blog post definitely. I am honored to have lived in a time when everyone else will be writing in history books the entire action of this whole week. Lehman Brothers falls, Merrill Lynch gets bought, AIG in the verge of bankruptcy, bonds off 10 points at least, stocks crumbling more than 30-50% in a matter of hours and falling another the next day. Black swans and bizarre does not give justice to what we are experiencing today. Even family and friends who do not care what the financial markets are doing, suddenly call me up 7am in the morning to ask how their deposits and insurances will be. Massive panic , financial armageddon and the end of the world was being highlighted all over the headlines and articles in Seeking Alpha, WSJ, BW and all leading finance journals.<br /><br />My mind recalls a couple of things I heard from my mentor. He was sharing to me a story about greatness. He told me that plungers such as Jesse Livermore are usually taken out of the game not because they weren't right, not because they lacked fundamental and technical analysis, not because of anything that you can ever pinpoint of but mainly because of position size. Plungers get jackpots or wipeouts. It's always an all-or nothing trade. The greatest trade made by Jesse happened during the 1987 crash when he was heavily short the market. There is a book called "Shark Investing" that thoroughly states that sharks like to take advantage of their preys at the most opportune time. The "PERFECT STORM" that we, as traders, always searched for in our lives was converging last Friday. We were preparing for it. I was very much giddy when Hangseng opened down 600 points last Thursday and fell 700 points more to close down 1300 points during the morning session. All of us were already calculating at which price we were going to bottom pick. We were so happy to see capitulation at the brink of our lives. Our boss would always recall the 20% drop in the DOW in a single day last 1987, when all the exchanges were halted for a week. All of us were short the market. Neither one of us took out our shorts. I was expecting to bottom pick HSI at the support of 15,000. It was a gamble indeed because my guess that it will hold is as good as everyone else's. It was the 10 yr moving average. It was the 50% psychological support. Everyone was panicky. We wanted to have the time of our lives. THE GREATEST TRADE EVER MADE.<br /><br />Lo and behold, I was already calling my folks and close friends that they should not be swayed by their emotions when the market falls 1000 points the next day. To pick up a few stocks was my battle cry. I even had spoken superstitions that the kneejerk reaction rallies happened August 17, March 18 and now the inevitable SEPTEMBER 19!<br /><br />Of course, we all know that just that afternoon, Shanghai was the first to lead the market. From being down 100 points, it suddenly erased all the losses and even made gains of about 20 points in the first 30 minutes of trading. <br /><br />I was damn scared. 230pm. The first trigger of my hand was to sell all my shorts, and to go long. I went long my favorite stock, went long some bull warrants and made a hefty 42% return on the total capital I invested that day. Wow. To see the index move 3000 points! from 16,200 to 19,200! WOW WOW WOW! You never see such a rally like this. Historical experts say there was never any recovery like this since the 1920's. <br /><br />The news that there was coordinated central bank action only came out 3pm. Can you imagine how those 30 minutes would have changed my portfolio forever? Had I not seen the move in Shanghai? It's really just like a scene whether if Michael Phelps really beat the other swimmer (forgive I can't remember his name) by a hundredth of a second! It's really like a buzzer beater shot! I can't quite explain the entire feeling.<br /><br />I am conflicted though. You know, if there was ever a loss that I will take? It would probably be getting squeezed yesterday (Thursday). Although the action in Thursday did give traders ample time to really cover!!! Watch the DJIA move! It was up 100 points, and down 100 points and surged 500 points to close up 410. It's so damn cool! Ok, so i got hit in the US. My mind thought maybe the gov't couldn't help the market when DJIA fell 100 points. <br /><br />Here's the thing. Greatest trades always get interrupted. Capitulation is almost always prevented by someone or something. If I'm gonna make an investment gamble (note it is a calculated gamble), I'll bet that there's a 100% chance that capitulation never comes. I was surprised that Lehman was allowed to fail. Hell I would have made a killing. My boss would have been earning millions with his shorts at $45 in LEH had he held with his convictions that LEH will fail and tumble to cents! 2008 was a really difficult year but it was bound with so many life-changing opportunities: whether it's to the downside or to the upside. <br /><br />I guess all I want to highlight is that although the excitement to make lots of money is there, position sizing has been key. The stocks that make the most gains in the past two days are not fundamentally good but the most shorted. That is clear short covering folks! The ones that lost the most money today are the conviction shortsellers. <br /><br />Clearly, when the pendulum swings violently, I am reminded by the words of one of our bosses: The greatest traders are dead before they are proven right. We may want to hit those jackpot trades, but there's a commensurate risk. We need to watch our position sizes. Clearly I didn't make money in the US because I was "all in" early in the open and had to cut when the DJIA fell 100 points. I was so convinced with the HSI thursday rally that it will do it again in the US! I forgot my real cutloss, when I calculated them it was too much to handle. I couldn't bear the possibility of losing that much and I had to cut the trade. Hindsight will kill a trader because the trades I made would have made more than 50% of my capital. They were call options and some longs in Chinese stocks. That's why. <br /><br />In summary, I really just had to say that this market move has given me confidence but cautious optimism only. I relish the "shark investing principle" that our boss told us, that our advantage against the huge elephants(hedgefunds) in this financial jungle, is that we can move so fast, and make a 360 degree reversal in our portfolios, while hedgefunds will take numerous days to do just the same (and by then, they will have been late). <br /><br />We live in interesting times.<br />Don't shoot for the greatest trades.<br />Always take a calculated investment gamble.<br /><br />:)<br /><br />- NixUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-57766980119449581392008-09-18T19:20:00.000+08:002009-09-06T15:44:35.186+08:00<br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><B><FONT SIZE=2><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><FONT COLOR="#000080">HK<br />Market </FONT></FONT></FONT></B><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><FONT COLOR="#000080"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><FONT SIZE=2><B>ZOOM<br />ZOOM ZOOM! Jump up your seats and BUY! BUY! BUY!</B></FONT></FONT></FONT></P><br /><P STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><FONT FACE="Courier New, monospace"><FONT SIZE=2><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif">In<br />its most dramatic session for the year, Hong Kong stocks zoomed in<br />the afternoon session after falling 1400 points during the morning<br />session, after the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the<br />Bank of Japan and other central banks took joint action to alleviate<br />tensions. The Hang Seng Index pared the losses down to 4.73 points<br />or 0.03% to close at 17632.46. The HSCCI advanced 87.01 points or<br />2.7% to close at 3314.47. H-Shares slipped 31.42 points or 0.36% to<br />close at 8633.73. Turnover was significantly higher at HK$102.35<br />Bil, higher than HK$76.354 Bil. </FONT></FONT></FONT></P><br /><P STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><BR><br /></P><br /><P STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><FONT FACE="Courier New, monospace"><FONT SIZE=2><B><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif">Technical<br />View: </FONT></B></FONT></FONT></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><FONT SIZE=2>Market staged a very very<br />clear cut rally. As traders, we simply buy and ask questions later. <br />Lo and behold, the news came out afterwards that the central banks<br />all over the world are coordinating action to inject funds into the<br />market. This is a clear government intervention to stop<br />capitulation. For us traders, this is a happy day and a sweet<br />reversal. You don’t have to be a technician to know that this<br />is a clear boost in sentiment and in risk appetites. </FONT></FONT><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><FONT SIZE=2><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><B>Short Recap: </B><br />Market opened 600 points down at 17,120 from previous close of 17,636<br />and continued its momentum to the downside sending the index to a low<br />of 16, 283.72 or 1,400 points down. As a trader, I looked for the<br />support of the 10 year moving average at 15,000 and was looking to<br />bottom fish tomorrow. Lo and behold, the market prevented the<br />capitulation and zoomed all the way up as much as 1600 points to a<br />high of 17,849.97 before slightly slowing down to close at 17,632.46.<br /> So this is what a bull market feels like, even if it’s just<br />for a brief 2 hours! It really is a great feeling. </FONT></FONT></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_230trwbnqfm_b" NAME="graphics1" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=650 HEIGHT=610 BORDER=0></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_231gmf95qhb_b" NAME="graphics2" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=650 HEIGHT=610 BORDER=0></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><B><FONT SIZE=2><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif">Preferred Action: BUY<br />BUY BUY! 700 HK or Tencent is my top pick. </FONT></FONT></B><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><FONT SIZE=2><I>Support: 54.00 (Tight<br />support found in intraday)</I></FONT></FONT></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><FONT SIZE=2><I>Resistance: 64.00</I></FONT></FONT></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><FONT SIZE=2><I>Preferred Entry: 54.05<br />but 58.00 is still fine </I></FONT></FONT><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><FONT SIZE=2><I>Disclosure: Author is<br />long Tencent</I></FONT></FONT></P><br /><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"> </P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><BR><br /></P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /> </P><br /><P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: 100%"><br /><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_232t365ccd3_b" NAME="graphics3" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=67 HEIGHT=67 BORDER=0><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_233dqqtn4k4_b" NAME="graphics4" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=650 HEIGHT=610 BORDER=0><IMG src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_234f98rbxkw_b" NAME="graphics5" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=650 HEIGHT=610 BORDER=0></P><br /><br>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-61553507332855399082008-09-04T12:34:00.001+08:002008-09-04T12:42:57.403+08:00On Plungers, High Rollers and Graveyards<p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">“<span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><i>The graveyards of Wall Street are filled with great people who were right too soon.” </i></span></span> </p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">– <span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><i>Juanis Barredo, Citiseconline Technical Analyst</i></span></span></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;">I am privileged enough to have heard Juanis quote this line to remind fellow traders and investors that big bets in Wall Street will leave you either living with the hall of fame or forever doomed to the hall of shame. He quoted this line to remind us that we don’t need to be great in trading. We just have to be consistent with our risk management. This must be a revelation to most beginning traders as all other professions would want their trainees to dream and be at the top of their leagues. In the markets, I keep on reminding myself, not to bet aggressively, to follow my stops and always be humble especially in determining how much position a bet will be. (Sounds more like Danny Go telling absolute traders to be disciplined right?)</span></span></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><b>Ospraie Closes</b></span></span></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;">Sept. 3’s most read event was the highly publicized closing of Ospraie, a $3.6 Bil hedgefund in the US after losing 38% due to the unwinding of the commodities and agriculture this past month. Personally, I cannot help but feel sorry with the traders of this fund. Every price chart pointed that the commodities will be collapsing anytime soon. It’s just too difficult to get out of positions that are already too large without affecting the prices. To be a hedge fund trader is perhaps the pinnacle of any new trader’s dream. Managing billions of dollars of other people, however, is a hell of a job. </span></span> </p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><img src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_228frnk6sck_b" name="graphics1" width="400" align="bottom" border="0" height="295" /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:78%;"><span style="font-size:78%;">Dwight Anderson, Ospraie Management LLC founder, poses in the Park Avenue offices in New York, on Oct. 12, 2007</span></span></span></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:85%;">I quote from a Bloomberg article below: </span></span> </p> <p style="margin-top: 0.19in; margin-bottom: 0.19in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><i>`I Live With Stress' </i></span></span> </p> <p style="margin-top: 0.19in; margin-bottom: 0.19in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><i>Anderson says the task of managing $7 billion of other people's money is a persistent source of anxiety. ``I live constantly with stress,'' he says. ``I'm always worried that we're wrong.'' Until the 6-foot-3 inch (1.9-meter) money manager got married two years ago, he relieved the pressure with motorcycle riding, scuba diving, bungee jumping and heli-skiing -- the last at resorts in Cordova and Girdwood, Alaska. He says he's cut back on adventure sports since getting married and having a child. </i></span></span> </p> <p style="margin-top: 0.19in; margin-bottom: 0.19in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><b>Graveyard lessons</b></span></span></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;">I guess the only thing I wanted to point out in this short story is that the demise of Anderson’s hedge fund is very parallel to the trading style of the best hedge fund manager in the US last year, John Paulson. In 2007, Paulson’s funds were up $15 Bil over the previous year, helped by aggressive betting against the overvalued subprime mortgages and securitized risky mortgages. The stark difference between the two is that John Paulson’s team got it right while Anderson wasn’t able to leave while the commodities were still hot. I guess the story poses a lesson to all traders, new or old, that traders’ number one job is to protect the capital, not necessarily to earn money in such a tight environment. Perhaps this is a revolutionary idea to some, since traders are expected to make money. No one ever highlighted that before making money, not losing money is the more important job. Position sizing is key. Aggressive traders who are blind to risk will show up either in the billionaires club or sued by their clients. Nassim Taleb, the author of the book “The Black Swan”, has perhaps excelled in teaching Wall Street to prioritize their risk issues before making any bets once said that </span></span> </p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color:#0000ff;"><u><a href="http://fredwilson.vc/post/47912667/the-payoff-in-a-human-venture-is-in-general">“</a></u></span> <i><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;">The payoff in a human venture is, in general, inversely proportional to what it is expected to be. — Nassim Taleb</span></span></i></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"> <span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:85%;">In summary, life is always uncertain. There are no sure bets in life, except as they say, death and taxes. We can have all our support and resistances, our preferred entries, our chart patterns, our fundamental catalysts, insider information, astrological superstitions or what have you, but the key to everything is position size. Not everything is what we expect to be. Kindly don’t suicide in trading. I’ll miss you. </span></span> </p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:85%;">- Nix (lonevoice)</span></span></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-32960438359192234212008-09-03T17:00:00.000+08:002008-09-04T12:42:07.688+08:00 <DIV TYPE=HEADER> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0.4in"><BR> </P> </DIV> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif">Sept 3, 2008 </FONT></B> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><B>Hang Seng Market Overview:</B></FONT></P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><B>Certainly not outside the realm of possible</B></FONT></P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif">I mentioned last Sept 2 that the index could retest its previous low of 20,350 and this certainly cannot be ignored. Wall Street’s sell-off from 240 points up in the open to close negative 27 showed just how bear market rallies typically behave. Hong Kong’s index followed suit. It opened yesterday at 20,964.75, near where it closed a day ago, but went down with heavy selling to fall at an intraday low of 20,526.73 or 500 points down and closed slightly higher at 20,585.06 closing 457.40 points down or 2.17%. While these occurrences can be frustrating, it should be noted that market bottoms will usually retest lows, or it may also not. 20,350 is the next support. If it falls lower, then all hell is loose. MACD points a divergence so bulls still have a fighting chance.</FONT></P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><B>Recommendation: </B>Traders can go long on selective stocks. Many chart patterns are divergent. One of which that I will highlight today is <B>Zhejiang Express or 576 HK</B>.</FONT></P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><B>Intraday Hangseng Chart</B></FONT></P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG SRC="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_224cwxgxtg5_b" NAME="graphics1" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=692 HEIGHT=303 BORDER=0></P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><B>Daily Hang Seng Chart:</B></FONT></P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG SRC="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_225mqsffxxm_b" NAME="graphics2" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=692 HEIGHT=650 BORDER=0></P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Stock Picks:</B></P> <OL> <LI><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Zhejiang Express (576)</B></P> </OL> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Support: 5.00</B></P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Preferred Entry: 5.12</B></P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Resistance: 6</B></P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Risk Reward Ratio : 88 cents gain for 12 cents loss</B></P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG SRC="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_226hdr24qcj_b" NAME="graphics3" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=692 HEIGHT=650 BORDER=0></P> <DIV TYPE=FOOTER> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-top: 0.4in; margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> </DIV> <br>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-88856047369688176102008-09-02T17:13:00.000+08:002008-09-04T12:42:07.697+08:00 <DIV TYPE=HEADER> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0.4in"><BR> </P> </DIV> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><B>Hang Seng Market Overview:</B></FONT></P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><B>One day reversal? </B></FONT> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif">HIS opened at 20,956.94, a little lower from where it closed yesterday and fell as much as 350 points to a low of 20,595.59 in intraday trade. However, the decline of oil prices to as much as $106/bbl sent the airline stocks higher in the last hour of the market giving the HSI a gain of 136 points closing at 21,042.46. MACD divergence is still in place. Rally mode is very very near. A good follow through coming from the decline in oil prices will probably send the US markets a lift allowing HK to maintain the bullish mode.</FONT></P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><B>Recommendation: </B>Traders can go long on selective stocks. Many chart patterns are divergent. One of which that I will highlight today is <B>Intime Department Store or 1833 HK</B>. </FONT> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><B>Intraday Hangseng Chart</B></FONT></P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG SRC="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_220cg3md4v7_b" NAME="graphics1" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=692 HEIGHT=302 BORDER=0></P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><B>Daily Hang Seng Chart:</B></FONT></P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG SRC="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_221df5dfzcz_b" NAME="graphics2" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=692 HEIGHT=650 BORDER=0></P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Stock Picks:</B></P> <OL> <LI><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Intime Department Store (1833)</B></P> </OL> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Support: 3.74 (3 day previous low)</B></P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Preferred Entry: 4 or below, or breakout of 4.15</B></P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Resistance: 4.95</B></P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG SRC="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_2222qt5jgcd_b" NAME="graphics3" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=692 HEIGHT=650 BORDER=0></P> <DIV TYPE=FOOTER> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-top: 0.4in; margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> </DIV> <br>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-38701735825204832742008-09-01T17:51:00.000+08:002008-09-04T12:42:07.708+08:00 <DIV TYPE=HEADER> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0.4in"><BR> </P> </DIV> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><B>Hang Seng Market Overview:</B></FONT></P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><B>A floor or a retest at 20,350? </B></FONT> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif">After the sell-off in the US markets last Friday, HK followed gapping down approximately 300 points in the open at 20,999.32, and solidly went down but only for a further 50 to 150 points more. Market made an intraday low of 20,844.15 and closed 355.58 points down at 20,906.31. While today’s action was largely sideways, traders should still be long in this market considering the divergent path between the MACD and the price amid these oversold levels. However, a retest of 20,350, market’s previous low cannot be ignored. </FONT> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><B>Recommendation: </B>Traders can go long on selective stocks. Many chart patterns are divergent. One of which that I will highlight today is <B>Orient Overseas or 316 HK</B>.</FONT></P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><B>Intraday Hangseng Chart</B></FONT></P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG SRC="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_216qrpmtrc3_b" NAME="graphics1" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=692 HEIGHT=294 BORDER=0></P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><FONT FACE="Arial, sans-serif"><B>Daily Hang Seng Chart:</B></FONT></P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" ALIGN=JUSTIFY STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG SRC="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_217gzgtnff8_b" NAME="graphics2" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=692 HEIGHT=650 BORDER=0></P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Stock Picks:</B></P> <OL> <LI><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Orient Overseas (316)</B></P> </OL> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Support: 25.45</B></P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Preferred Entry: 26.00 or below</B></P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Resistance: 29.80</B></P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Risk Reward Ratio : 3.80 gain versus 0.55 loss ~ 6.91</B></P> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><IMG SRC="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_218f3t3tbfn_b" NAME="graphics3" ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=692 HEIGHT=650 BORDER=0></P> <DIV TYPE=FOOTER> <P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-top: 0.4in; margin-bottom: 0in"><BR> </P> </DIV> <br>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-53403881841003431152008-08-30T17:34:00.000+08:002008-08-30T17:31:57.747+08:00<div type="HEADER"> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><b>Hang Seng Market Overview:</b></span></p> </div> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><b>Bottom has been made, although volatility should be cautioned.</b></span></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">Following the more than 200 points gain in the DJIA, Hang Seng market reversed the 400 point loss last Thursday to gap up opening at 21,289.70, up approximately 300 points. It spiked even higher during afternoon trading hours with an intraday high of 21,474.31 but was sold slightly by the market making a low of 21,223.99, after which the bulls regained their force and closed 289.60 points up at 21,261.89. It should be noted that the market performance last Friday has shown positive momentum for the market to rally. The doji pattern, as seen in the daily chart, shows that the market has been resilient despite its market leader China Mobile still falling for a second day. Gains were broad in the sector, although not as sharply as before. </span> </p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><b>Recommendation: </b>Traders should get back to work and enter aggressively in issues when market sells down, since a short term bottom has been in place. The characteristic of the Hong Kong market is unlike the US nor the Philippines because there are gap-ups, leaving traders who do not enter ahead of the pack, left behind. <b>Stock picks include : 2333 HK and 3383 HK. </b>Note that I also illustrated the chart pattern of <b>576 HK and 1200 HK</b>, as these small cap stocks have already shown the potential upside that can be taken advantage of in this volatile bear market short term bottom. A quick glance at the charts of China Life Insurance (2628 HK), Ping An Insurance (2318 HK) as well as Tsingtao Brewery (168 HK) will prove that Chinese H-shares have been leaders in this market’s rally.</span></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><b>Intraday Hangseng Chart</b></span></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><img style="width: 686px; height: 301px;" src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_208trzknqfg_b" name="graphics1" align="bottom" border="0" /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><b>Daily Hang Seng Chart:</b></span></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><img style="width: 684px; height: 640px;" src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_209ff8bx2c3_b" name="graphics2" align="bottom" border="0" /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><b>Stock Pick Summary:</b></span></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><b>I already computed the optimal position size, with a 1% risk size as well as assuming a 500K HKD capital for the following stocks. Thanks.</b></span></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><img style="width: 684px; height: 128px;" src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_210qc62mnmc_b" name="graphics3" align="bottom" border="0" /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><b>Watch List:</b></span></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;"><b>Midland Holdings (1200 HK) and Zhejiang Express (576 HK)</b></span></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;">1200 HK has already moved 33% from its bottom of 3.00, closing at 4 last Friday. Zhejiang Express has moved from its low of 4.60 to a short term high of 5.39 for about a 20% gain in just a week. Sounds familiar? While the substantial gains may find people thinking that the rally may have been finished, I think it is not. Midland Holdings may behave similarly like 2038 HK or Foxconn which still showed further rallies after a short term pullback. Zhejiang Express should be visualized like CEO (a stock listed in the US). The pattern is very similar. This should be taken advantage of, if a pullback ensues due to some profit taking from traders. </span> </p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;" align="justify"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><img src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_211fxgfnsgw_b" name="graphics4" width="686" align="bottom" border="0" height="644" /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><img src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_212drxkr8fd_b" name="graphics5" width="686" align="bottom" border="0" height="644" /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>Stock Picks:</b></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</b></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><img src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_213ghwc47g8_b" name="graphics6" width="686" align="bottom" border="0" height="644" /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>Agile Property (3383 HK)</b></p> <p class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><img src="http://docs.google.com/File?id=dr5ntzc_214dt8qk5cw_b" name="graphics7" width="686" align="bottom" border="0" height="644" /></p> <div type="FOOTER"> <p class="western" style="margin-top: 0.4in; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p> </div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-89890523028562214512008-08-30T09:22:00.005+08:002008-08-30T09:37:24.837+08:00Great shows to watch (non-trading)Before I "formally woke up" today, I told myself that I will not be watching CNBC nor Bloomberg extensively. I say "formally woke up", because I have started a different time clock with myself ever since watching the US markets. I sometimes wake up about 3-4am in the morning, to check how the portfolio is doing, so that I can probably place some new orders or keep the ones I have. Well, I'll get used to this one day. I woke up 4:05am unintentionally and without cellphone alarms. Markets are already closed so I went back to sleep. <br /><br />When I woke up, first thing I did was to switch the channel from the TV to things I don't frequent much. A couple of things I found interesting were the following shows:<br /><br /><br />1.) There was CNN's talkasia and they interviewed this celebrity chef Bobby Chinn. Now, I'm not so much into chefs, but it's more on how this guy turned himself from a waitress to celebrity chef and restaurateur that got me intersted. Plus, people who know me, will acknowledge that I love food. I think the guy has a food show, flavors in malaysia or something. just look it up. Discovery is great. I want to do things they have in Travel and Living!<br /><br />2.) Switched the channel to Animal planet and found them to be covering the animals with the most extreme workaholics. It's pretty interesting knowing more about bees, ants, cleaner fish, megapodes and beavers. Great show. I might frequent this more nextime.<br /><br />3.) There's this show in discovery's travel and living entitled 5 takes. It's really cool. There are these 5 TJ's (traveling journalists) armed with only USD50 every day each to go around the city. I got interested and checked it out. For those who are "so not connected with the world", read the reality show in wikipedia, and external links are just there. <br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_Takes<br /><br />The Filipino comic book artist from the Philippines selected to be the TJ is damn lucky. :)<br /><br />4.) I remembered my friend telling me to watch the last lecture of a professor in youtube. Am still downloading it but from the reviews, I'm sure I'm gonna be moved. <br />Check it out as well: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji5_MqicxSo<br />It's Randy Pausch's Last lecture.- Search it in youtube.<br /><br /><br />wokei.<br /><br />Have a great day.<br /><br />This week was tough. Made money, let it go away, learning to make money again, looking at missed opportunities (576 and 1200). Learning to take things easy. I might go drink some lemonade, fruit juices and give myself a healthy meal. <br /><br />Byee. For the indonesian who commented on some HK posts, thanks and I'll try to post some HK ideas as well as US ideas aroudn here more often.<br /><br />my ymid is y_nikki2003. Looking forward for more ideas. Reading blogs on seekingalpha and broker reports can be time consuming. It helps to have peers.<br /><br />-NixUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-85558742723093576682008-08-21T20:21:00.005+08:002008-08-21T20:29:33.752+08:00HK Daily Picks- 08-21-08 (2600)<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-_r_y6_hEH32Wei8HsiOd2WN6PNnYSfaB1NDD-fYpTpgpbYEvyCvB-jo86DaqiSAQG2Nbg6WFXtkZwrmkmkqROntAucSJv8UU1jDGYPP1Mtx0BiVsBsV08XEdbCizAIVdjztH7eNYW2I/s1600-h/hangseng+intraday+8-21-08.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-_r_y6_hEH32Wei8HsiOd2WN6PNnYSfaB1NDD-fYpTpgpbYEvyCvB-jo86DaqiSAQG2Nbg6WFXtkZwrmkmkqROntAucSJv8UU1jDGYPP1Mtx0BiVsBsV08XEdbCizAIVdjztH7eNYW2I/s320/hangseng+intraday+8-21-08.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5236946092930436306" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfz2_-Y8c0FFH4_Vue638fErzOPQYx9QSVnD-evZlPdanKOcndeXUDQTmWmZ6t98BTpDcrzQKNpVowmfdNuZVUVVgpTzorWv6j3F8R11uN0nMu6Mr_0eBDuHSCZCx9G5kcxaM-xWc97U0/s1600-h/hangseng+daily0821.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfz2_-Y8c0FFH4_Vue638fErzOPQYx9QSVnD-evZlPdanKOcndeXUDQTmWmZ6t98BTpDcrzQKNpVowmfdNuZVUVVgpTzorWv6j3F8R11uN0nMu6Mr_0eBDuHSCZCx9G5kcxaM-xWc97U0/s320/hangseng+daily0821.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5236945778145466434" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Hang Seng Market Overview:</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Hold your horses… Healthy correction is a given. Learn to look before you leap.</span><br /><br />Most traders today did not find themselves happy upon seeing the downtick at the open of Hang Seng. I guess it was only I who was happy because the HK market was giving an entrance for me to participate in a plausible short term rally. The momentum traders who chased stocks yesterday are now back to reality and are supposed to cut their losses or stand the volatility, while I was happy watching the correction. Learn to look before you leap. I didn’t chase stocks yesterday since it passed through my buying point, watched patiently for a retracement to better entry levels and bought a few commodity stocks for tomorrow. Yesterday, while everyone was giddy about the government package. I was checking my trend lines to see if any breakouts were made. I was happy that there was none and the correction today proved very good in shaking out all the bottom callers who blindly chased stocks without looking at the risks. Mind you that the market could have also broken out on the upside today and I would have to have bought and chased the prices already, since a reversal would have already been in play. Nevertheless, the market rewarded the patient ones. :)<br /><br />Hang Seng index opened at 20,762.65, roughly 200 points down from yesterday’s close and did the opposite today compared to yesterday. It steadily moved lower to close 539.20 points down closing at 20,392.06. It should be noted that in today’s down day, what makes this correction healthy is that it is still within the trading box. The real support according to technical analysis is 20,200 which suggests about 200 points down from today’s close. This should be expected. Nevertheless, we should commend Hong Kong markets despite the downtick because the sell off was contained in weak sectors. Good companies and sectoral plays such as energy and commodities still closed higher today (E.g. 2600 HK or Chalco, 358 HK or Jiangxi Copper as well as 688 HK or China Overseas Land). This indicates to traders that strength in commodities will be the theme for the US markets tonight as well as a plausible catalyst for tomorrow or the next day’s HK rally. It should be noted that checking the movements of EUR versus the USD, as well as the price of oil would have lead to the conclusion that the dollar strength is easing, while commodities are oversold. <br /><br />Recommendation: Play the sectoral theme. Energy and commodities are good probes. Good setup featured in the stock pick is 2600 HK (Chalco). Watch the steel stocks : 347 HK (Angang Steel) as well as 323 HK (Maanshan Iron and Steel). Worldwide commodity strength can propel these stocks to the upside, fundamental wise and chart wise.<br /><br />Stock Picks:<br />Chalco (2600)<br /><br />I like Chalco because this is a clear cut technical set up with risks to the upside. First, after the profit taking in Chalco today, the sell off stopped at 6.40 to 6.50 levels and closed to the upside. It should be noted that with the 400+ points move in Hang Seng yesterday, it is not surprising for short term traders to take profits near the 6.80 to 6.90 levels since the overall sentiment in the index is down today. What’s commendable is that the sell off stopped at the level of yesterday’s breakout. Note that this is particularly positive for short term traders because most aluminum charts in the US are all oversold and have all shot up higher on the upside. Commodities such as oil are also setting up for a rally. From an inter market analysis’ point of view, this stock is affirming that demand for the stock is higher than the selling pressure. Daily chart’s beautiful as the parabolic buy signal is there as well as a MACD divergence. Risk reward ratios are also compelling.<br /><br />Recommendation:<br />Support: 6.20<br />Resistance: 6.90/7.60<br />Preferred Entry: 6.40<br />Risk Reward Ratio: 50 cents gain, 20 cents loss (2.25) or 120 cents gain, 20 cents loss (6)<br /><br />P.S.<br />(See the chart through www.bigcharts.com : Just type HK:2600, 1 yr daily chart and 10 day 15 minute charts) Thanks<br /><br />-NixUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-56338324293982912572008-08-20T18:24:00.003+08:002008-08-20T18:32:21.302+08:00HK Daily for 08-20-08 (2866,203)<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGEHOzl-fxmZ8IkNskJf_bDkttLRf9xVbtrjmHEAzFi_IOOHG9-q4rMoixukU_29sDwRpNcftR0eXRFxb5nLey4IREU-EX6fV1_60OHeKtUbcMhdam9tNcc3FX4QlntU-XKD-1foFO-50/s1600-h/Hang+Seng+intraday+08-20-08.bmp"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGEHOzl-fxmZ8IkNskJf_bDkttLRf9xVbtrjmHEAzFi_IOOHG9-q4rMoixukU_29sDwRpNcftR0eXRFxb5nLey4IREU-EX6fV1_60OHeKtUbcMhdam9tNcc3FX4QlntU-XKD-1foFO-50/s320/Hang+Seng+intraday+08-20-08.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5236545178871450242" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYLnqV50n1I9h3rYryypoA71g3ZqDS4AQlCXN_M4LSyFg83SmiUgNdsvfAkIaJThwFtV2thEky2mcnfB_UfgPdcogOyA86ONgd3iCpnaqgLt_bW-_8-f1AXhCu1owKQWrafTa5z_RcliM/s1600-h/Hang+Seng++08-20-08.bmp"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYLnqV50n1I9h3rYryypoA71g3ZqDS4AQlCXN_M4LSyFg83SmiUgNdsvfAkIaJThwFtV2thEky2mcnfB_UfgPdcogOyA86ONgd3iCpnaqgLt_bW-_8-f1AXhCu1owKQWrafTa5z_RcliM/s320/Hang+Seng++08-20-08.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5236545267623192786" border="0" /></a><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b>Hang Seng Market Overview:<o:p></o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b>Is this finally real?<span style=""> </span>Looks like it…<o:p></o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">I actually cannot believe my eyes as I’ve seen this market open and steadily moved higher.<span style=""> </span>Perhaps it was partly due to cutting a lot of losses from the market as the bottom seemed to be near and yet it seemed so far.<span style=""> </span>So when the boy who cried wolf wolf cried again today, I couldn’t get myself to trade.<span style=""> </span>Though I think I should…I finally threw the towel and the government finally helps boost investor confidence by saying in the news that they are planning a “stimulus package” worth RMB400-500 Bil to help the ailing markets.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p></o:p>Hang Seng index opened at 20,388.79, not far from yesterday’s low and moved steadily higher from morning to afternoon after rumors aired in the news on government’s possible intervention in the markets.<span style=""> </span>Market responded aggressively with upticks across all sectors.<span style=""> </span>Most of the stocks that moved higher were the most beaten down ones that are potential beneficiaries of the China package such as Anhui Conch Cement (914) as well as CNBM (3323) which are cement industries that will be primary builders of the destruction caused by the Sichuan earthquake.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><o:p> </o:p>Recommendation:<span style=""> </span></b><span style="">Things happen fast in the markets.<span style=""> </span>Traders can look to probe on issues that are forming good setups. 2866 and 203 look to be good probes.</span></p> (sorry didn't upload the charts of the stocks anymore here coz ang bagal ng blogger ko magupload. Just look at bigcharts.com na lang for the stocks.)<br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b>Stock Picks:<o:p></o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on"><b>China</b></st1:place></st1:country-region><b> Shipping Container Lines (2866)<o:p><br /></o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Intraday action is showing a cheap cut at a close below 1.90.<span style=""> </span>In Hong Kong Markets, most stocks will follow the uptick in the index, and this stock provides one of the best risk-reward ratios.<span style=""> </span>Parabolic has not yet chased the price.<span style=""> </span>More conservative traders will look to buy on an uptick that hits the parabola before entering.<span style=""> </span>Target price seen is at 2.50/2.25</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b>Recommendation: </b>Probe</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Support: 1.90</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Resistance/ Target Price: 2.25/2.50</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Preferred Entry: 1.94</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Risk Reward Ratio: 7.75/ 14 ( 31 cents of gain versus 4 cents of loss/ 54 cents gain versus 4 cents of loss)</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b>Denway Motors (203)<o:p></o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Denway Motors is steadily going higher and has finally gone past the parabolic signal with a box breakout intraday.<span style=""> </span>Probing by buying near 2.75 with a cut at 2.65 is a good risk/reward trade because target is about 3 to 3.10 from the daily chart as confirmed by the heavy 32 day MA resistance.<span style=""> </span>MACD started to cross today.<span style=""> </span>Volume is still average.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b>Recommendation: </b>Probe</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Support: <span style=""> </span>2.65</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Preferred Entry:<span style=""> </span>2.75</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Resistance:<span style=""> </span>3/3.10</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Risk Reward Ratio: <span style=""> </span>2.5/3.5</p><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">-Nix<br /><b><o:p></o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /><span style=""><o:p></o:p></span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-91029896479534325422008-08-20T00:10:00.001+08:002008-08-20T00:15:54.222+08:00Hong Kong Daily Outlook for Aug 19, 2008<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsk0SZ0H9ixoZO1qAzx0UMYP5_rPRVAsM6Phg_xtdETKi1HTwOuaAY7Mi6XvJjL3YdQ8A3HbPVLTW6wna-lTktKv4Ie6rCZ3n5NEtfOia4sjwV8lclwoV1rqQQbsS6gY1ijqWreaOyyQ8/s1600-h/hangseng+intraday+aug+19.bmp"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsk0SZ0H9ixoZO1qAzx0UMYP5_rPRVAsM6Phg_xtdETKi1HTwOuaAY7Mi6XvJjL3YdQ8A3HbPVLTW6wna-lTktKv4Ie6rCZ3n5NEtfOia4sjwV8lclwoV1rqQQbsS6gY1ijqWreaOyyQ8/s320/hangseng+intraday+aug+19.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5236263033142480738" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ0IE1pXQJX-UjlFsEnVb9v1U593Edv2ecjS28z2yteQRaoVzZrRx_-cvC3DOLy92SSogGv4qkHVrtgCXtB-UTqN0HK4WP6SA-W_pBcqdZHSfulaLSZuU1u-spXBjZxKB3MeiPei_5I6c/s1600-h/hk+intraday+8-19-08.bmp"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ0IE1pXQJX-UjlFsEnVb9v1U593Edv2ecjS28z2yteQRaoVzZrRx_-cvC3DOLy92SSogGv4qkHVrtgCXtB-UTqN0HK4WP6SA-W_pBcqdZHSfulaLSZuU1u-spXBjZxKB3MeiPei_5I6c/s320/hk+intraday+8-19-08.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5236263033013951618" border="0" /></a><br /> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b>Scary thoughts fulfilled: Prepare for Gruesome Lose –em <o:p></o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="">Hang Seng Index has broken lower than its March 18 low and the only support waiting right now is just simply the August 17 lows which rests at 19,386.72.<span style=""> </span>From today’s close of 20,484.37, what’s most bearish on today’s performance is that the weakness of Hangseng was broad based leaving all sectors down despite Shanghai posting a 1% gain today due to good earnings of China Merchants Bank, a big cap heavyweight in Shanghai.<span style=""> </span>With these headwinds, traders should stand aside and let the heavy overhead supply get distributed before taking any long positions.<span style=""> </span>Prepare to see new lows.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b>Recommendation:<span style=""> </span></b><span style="">My previous recommendation to just simply detach and take a vacation holds.<span style=""> </span>Just observe and watch the markets from a distant view.<span style=""> </span>Avoid HK markets until a decisive amount and size of bounces form within a sustainable trading range.<span style=""> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-73678613274219182752008-08-18T17:01:00.001+08:002008-08-18T17:25:31.726+08:00HK Daily for 08-18-08<span style="font-size:100%;"><a style="font-family: arial;" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7Qn9NSNo99G084jFvpKMopN08PADPa0ji7-xnXPMyvMk6dPw1xvdKAw6MG-Gd6it3NuBsbTVsrjdRTv2QkNhJgEiRoBOcMp1mv4ltIrv-gA_rgkuB3wtgTJmYDwSK1IGiwxc53KVS0Mg/s1600-h/Hang+Seng++08-15-08.bmp"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7Qn9NSNo99G084jFvpKMopN08PADPa0ji7-xnXPMyvMk6dPw1xvdKAw6MG-Gd6it3NuBsbTVsrjdRTv2QkNhJgEiRoBOcMp1mv4ltIrv-gA_rgkuB3wtgTJmYDwSK1IGiwxc53KVS0Mg/s320/Hang+Seng++08-15-08.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5235785230524984962" border="0" /></a><br /><a style="font-family: arial;" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5KB25HdUoPB5miD2RBEnNVCpitP0MhFTl0Oh7qjGpLhemZo810ZBNoxr7wXwF_6ZiB9HAE-QN_vaoiduwMVJmsmk0Cb4e-hONtmgYl9rXwMkU7bjFU8ELdE0GyZx9lkUuqbEfsctWknk/s1600-h/HK+Intraday+8-18-08.PNG"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5KB25HdUoPB5miD2RBEnNVCpitP0MhFTl0Oh7qjGpLhemZo810ZBNoxr7wXwF_6ZiB9HAE-QN_vaoiduwMVJmsmk0Cb4e-hONtmgYl9rXwMkU7bjFU8ELdE0GyZx9lkUuqbEfsctWknk/s320/HK+Intraday+8-18-08.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5235785233118810818" border="0" /></a><br /></span> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>Scary thoughts: <st1:place st="on">Hong Kong</st1:place> to make its newest low? <o:p></o:p></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size:100%;">Hang Seng Index closed down lower than 21,000 today to 20,930.67, amidst a 5% drop and 10% daily stock limit drops for <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Shanghai</st1:place></st1:City>.<span style=""> </span>It was a harrowing weekend indeed as selling pressure from this year’s Olympics host has distinctly decoupled from all markets.<span style=""> </span>It has been in a constant downtrend, albeit see-sawing violently within days.<span style=""> </span>This breakdown is very important as we will soon test the March 18 lows.<span style=""> </span>This is just approximately 350 points away.<span style=""> </span>1 day of downtick is all we need, after which the August 17 lows which rests at 19,386.72 will be the next support.<span style=""> </span><st1:place st="on">Hong Kong</st1:place>’s correction is really killing all traders softly.<span style=""> </span>Intraday chart suggests that we are just at the beginning of another trading box.<span style=""> </span>It’s just a matter of time before HK slips down again.<span style=""> </span><br /><o:p><br /></o:p><b>Recommendation:<span style=""> </span></b><span style="">Detach yourself from the <st1:place st="on">Hong Kong</st1:place> markets for the meantime.<span style=""> </span>Go on vacation first as we approach this long weekend in the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Philippines</st1:place></st1:country-region>.<span style=""> </span>I know it is still Monday but the carnage will come, although we may see sharp intraday see-sawing moves upwards, whipsawing oblivious day traders.<span style=""> </span>Avoid HK market until the market bounces with a sustainable trading range.<span style=""> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-86454751560572421232008-08-17T01:55:00.002+08:002008-08-17T02:01:24.673+08:00HK Daily Outlook for August 15,2008<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi-kWlIVEnqVQOlcfnKpxnYhvNcljZSmHoiu_WqxMnnfbY997y4vVz6xWMDvVs6J_7yJaF1QBL744kAA4dGa9m6rcavZchWVnfDNBESQLfUMn1WLMpJfSo81twqd3Wv0GTeB4kgkQcKP0/s1600-h/hangseng+daily08-15.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5235175769003870034" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi-kWlIVEnqVQOlcfnKpxnYhvNcljZSmHoiu_WqxMnnfbY997y4vVz6xWMDvVs6J_7yJaF1QBL744kAA4dGa9m6rcavZchWVnfDNBESQLfUMn1WLMpJfSo81twqd3Wv0GTeB4kgkQcKP0/s320/hangseng+daily08-15.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM0vZueX1vMsuToCmg50dYsED96wz0zlFxXG06Bz0-XbBsTsJldhEWFwqcjwnChJFGyTbr-UqZBpSOQpw4XPx1ib9SKGVSKJb3VJTsUs7GGbcEIorlMC3M1mvHe8yDD9IPUeIWDaJatQM/s1600-h/hangseng+intraday.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5235176800017683730" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM0vZueX1vMsuToCmg50dYsED96wz0zlFxXG06Bz0-XbBsTsJldhEWFwqcjwnChJFGyTbr-UqZBpSOQpw4XPx1ib9SKGVSKJb3VJTsUs7GGbcEIorlMC3M1mvHe8yDD9IPUeIWDaJatQM/s320/hangseng+intraday.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><strong>Hang Seng Market Overview:</strong><br /><br /><strong>Support Retested: Monday is Make or Break Time</strong><br />Hang Seng Index didn’t have a follow through rally from the commodities as oil fell another $1 in US trading overnight last Thursday prompting HK commodity companies to shed their gains of 5% yesterday. This has led Hang Seng to fall 232 points at the close of Friday. What’s interesting though is that despite the market not having a follow through rally from commodity stocks, it hovered throughout the day, bounced after a clear retest from 21,000 (20994.54 to be exact) and traded slightly above near the support area closing at 21,160. The downtick in today’s price action should not have been a big surprise to traders as the 21,000 key support level was clearly outlined from the breakdown of the box of 22,400 to 21,700 signifying a possible 700 point drop which has happened in the following 3 days. Monday will be a make or break time for Hong Kong. Since Wall Street closed mixed or relatively flat last Friday, HK market’s direction will most probably follow Shanghai’s lead. If it closes lower than 21,000, prepare to cut all positions into a loss as another downside of 700 points could happen. On a brighter note, if Hang Seng opens at a higher note, then stocks could trend higher. <br /><br /><strong>Recommendation:</strong> HK market is still in a correction phase. Most traders are advised to avoid trading Hong Kong due to the high volatility but aggressive traders can start probing into some stocks that are forming quiet patterns of support. A break below 21,000 will be a definitive signal that HK has a lot to go down, but if it just hovers above that level, then it will be a see-saw ride again for HK.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-52575647166758828712008-08-14T18:27:00.004+08:002008-08-14T18:56:16.279+08:00HK Stock Picks for 08-14-08 (2600,2866,323,1200)<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbZHA88OVXtE_pwynIPOru8tSE91IpFL6XTjNFcATU5tZYr2B8wdUTnj3fmdPb2Z9Z5mttuA3nGGsWJFGvq2xr11TRurvIJo7NJ7m_aQXebguAbZupaYeMfl3EOYOb9T3EJ6zEk5bi9Rk/s1600-h/Hang+Seng++08-14-08.bmp"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbZHA88OVXtE_pwynIPOru8tSE91IpFL6XTjNFcATU5tZYr2B8wdUTnj3fmdPb2Z9Z5mttuA3nGGsWJFGvq2xr11TRurvIJo7NJ7m_aQXebguAbZupaYeMfl3EOYOb9T3EJ6zEk5bi9Rk/s320/Hang+Seng++08-14-08.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5234321518457463682" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUz-aUdiwHhOSHN4C43sY4My3ezJvjNpPkFj6GJAjbmtjC_FDRl99TcGqK6PG-tB2QtBEQmKycbBA6Jz0Y8XesbelwmvrocCgnVSKF1Yb6t7WKQosc1wNu5ykDpH15IXhwahy5a7Zmp6o/s1600-h/Hang+Seng+intraday+08-14-08.bmp"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUz-aUdiwHhOSHN4C43sY4My3ezJvjNpPkFj6GJAjbmtjC_FDRl99TcGqK6PG-tB2QtBEQmKycbBA6Jz0Y8XesbelwmvrocCgnVSKF1Yb6t7WKQosc1wNu5ykDpH15IXhwahy5a7Zmp6o/s320/Hang+Seng+intraday+08-14-08.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5234321523944050786" border="0" /></a><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b>Hang Seng Market Overview:<o:p></o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b>Temporary Support Found? <o:p></o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Hang Seng Index’s performance today is commendable.<span style=""> </span>First, it didn’t gap down (which is normally what I would think it would do considering its weak performance for the past couple of days whenever Wall Street falls more than 1%.)<span style=""> </span>Intraday, Hang Seng was basically just hovering between a range of 21,400 to 21,100.<span style=""> </span>The nice thing is that it closed up and most of the stocks, especially the basic materials staged their first uptick for a very convincing follow through rally the next day.<span style=""> </span>The move is very much connected to the rally of energy stocks in the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> with the first uptick of oil prices from $114 to $116. <span style=""> </span>To understand the strength of today’s performance of Hang Seng, consider the volume and value traded of 2600.HK also known as Chalco for today.<span style=""> </span>In my view, HSI is likely to tread higher tomorrow and this will already mean about 5-6% gains potentially made in a single day.<span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b>Recommendation:<span style=""> </span></b><span style="">Start probing especially with the most beaten down stocks.<span style=""> </span>Those that fall fast will recover violently once the Wave 4 Elliot Wave rally comes. While HSI is still undergoing a correction, beaten down stocks have been resting in their support levels (e.g. 200.HK, 2866.HK, 1200.HK, 2600.HK).</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b>Stock Picks:<o:p></o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-align: justify;">All the stock picks were chosen mainly because they broke out from fast downtrend channels.<span style=""> </span>I am trading this for the short term.<span style=""> </span>A move from 2 to 3 is already 50%.<span style=""> </span>I am choosing the most beaten down stocks whose prices are all about down 80% from its high (meaning it has really underperformed the whole market.)<span style=""> </span>I am playing for the worst of the crop (ones I like to call abandoned beauties).<span style=""> </span>I repeat that I am not catching falling knives.<span style=""> </span>The trading patterns from the charts will illustrate what I mean.<span style=""> </span>I am merely here for the short term bounce which is usually a sizeable return.<span style=""> </span>Think about the Philippine bear market rally in the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Philippines</st1:place></st1:country-region> and you will understand that a move of MEG from 1.14 to 1.72 is already worth 50%.<span style=""> </span>That is the kind of stock that I am looking and trading for.</p><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Summary of Stock Picks:</span> (Viewable through google docs just above this blog post.)<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGsswIMmf9Zqyax-dWlcoo88w4SCKwG-FTddKz_NKekQEPYsc6nNQOq45ZcB8fHNKa0bhVwLRNbzG24e0TnaKSbpzEXQgx0NchSLCq4Cd3_ampoT_mkLELBN34w3WNDshD640q05C0B6g/s1600-h/1200HK+Daily.bmp"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGsswIMmf9Zqyax-dWlcoo88w4SCKwG-FTddKz_NKekQEPYsc6nNQOq45ZcB8fHNKa0bhVwLRNbzG24e0TnaKSbpzEXQgx0NchSLCq4Cd3_ampoT_mkLELBN34w3WNDshD640q05C0B6g/s320/1200HK+Daily.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5234324574476767666" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqE6eIOrL7ci1wOWKTgQhZqySfZNeyTnhflX1XsTVAQ6ptdUjQ-LTAmYDBLRgZ2ZE-k2YiYbkbfBIo6ODmteA9wN-c_JDbOtItTcBLPhlFznhOPg5HFQzuqz91-CGhVTNwO2WDq5WUBWk/s1600-h/2600HK+Daily.bmp"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqE6eIOrL7ci1wOWKTgQhZqySfZNeyTnhflX1XsTVAQ6ptdUjQ-LTAmYDBLRgZ2ZE-k2YiYbkbfBIo6ODmteA9wN-c_JDbOtItTcBLPhlFznhOPg5HFQzuqz91-CGhVTNwO2WDq5WUBWk/s320/2600HK+Daily.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5234324576666448402" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjHVh4031LlrTPn7QZos4ckLByebCsI_7rSSx4SbbPTEuZK2KijQLSiTFZr70e_LYphOgqQL6sjHKeyRHq4u_hqjE_bYoGTXt2qtBFbJUlT_jPryikxh4aU0eRD42iEw_Xj2Z1MMc2Rg4/s1600-h/2866HK.bmp"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjHVh4031LlrTPn7QZos4ckLByebCsI_7rSSx4SbbPTEuZK2KijQLSiTFZr70e_LYphOgqQL6sjHKeyRHq4u_hqjE_bYoGTXt2qtBFbJUlT_jPryikxh4aU0eRD42iEw_Xj2Z1MMc2Rg4/s320/2866HK.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5234324583537793138" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2uel1g7TmRuiZdpMCfR_RF6e-VpkQuifeJ8Tm-Ykdb3JScxbhreJS4yUFOE_MIIqxqPaAuq3lAKzvAlHAto0l4V_5VmTznk5ZWznLFUdcHag9j899fWuoZTojEFJRDMF5hIK6sy5Jc1g/s1600-h/2600HK+Daily.bmp"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2uel1g7TmRuiZdpMCfR_RF6e-VpkQuifeJ8Tm-Ykdb3JScxbhreJS4yUFOE_MIIqxqPaAuq3lAKzvAlHAto0l4V_5VmTznk5ZWznLFUdcHag9j899fWuoZTojEFJRDMF5hIK6sy5Jc1g/s320/2600HK+Daily.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5234322985577398002" border="0" /></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-16338013563147676412008-08-13T17:09:00.002+08:002008-08-13T17:14:48.179+08:00Hang Seng Market Overview for 08-13-08<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHvY6lITlfDkfxtZvS0xh2_WbpW4w9aFUWCuNCmHKD-_c4rElc6OH3QwwBQq9t50RAJHWrFR6GxGxU5Qk8FgAFPY4-7JwAYQ4HWHpHZh0tVgzRnYmqhZUu_Jlw6jpETYiU5-9A3kvD3nA/s1600-h/Hang+Seng+Daily+2008-8-13.bmp"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHvY6lITlfDkfxtZvS0xh2_WbpW4w9aFUWCuNCmHKD-_c4rElc6OH3QwwBQq9t50RAJHWrFR6GxGxU5Qk8FgAFPY4-7JwAYQ4HWHpHZh0tVgzRnYmqhZUu_Jlw6jpETYiU5-9A3kvD3nA/s320/Hang+Seng+Daily+2008-8-13.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5233927903587172498" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHjMKMrjVaaA4l8sjj2EIlLhqq9w370C81R-WsaFLaRkxzTJVArekfbOJwiCFS6icF2uJaVycaJE-GrgYfhEji3Txt08xW-iZh2R46SPMam9pmptDnrvFr4RsN8akCqaDEZiGYhjZiHJo/s1600-h/Hang+Seng+Intraday+2008-8-13.bmp"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHjMKMrjVaaA4l8sjj2EIlLhqq9w370C81R-WsaFLaRkxzTJVArekfbOJwiCFS6icF2uJaVycaJE-GrgYfhEji3Txt08xW-iZh2R46SPMam9pmptDnrvFr4RsN8akCqaDEZiGYhjZiHJo/s320/Hang+Seng+Intraday+2008-8-13.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5233927905829780450" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;font-family:arial;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><b>Hang Seng Market Overview:<o:p></o:p></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;font-family:arial;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;font-family:arial;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><b>True Colors Shown:<span style=""> </span>Hang Seng Breaks Down <o:p></o:p></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;font-family:arial;"><span style="font-size:85%;">Hang Seng Index gapped down roughly 350 points at the open following the dismal GDP of Japan as well as the negative sentiment following Wall Street’s 130+ point loss yesterday.<span style=""> </span>The whole day was another see-saw but the breakdown was never violated.<span style=""> </span>Before lunch, Hang Seng tried to stage a rally, but was quickly sold down by the market when it opened in the first few minutes, finally succumbing the fight to the bears.<span style=""> </span>As can be clearly seen from the intraday chart, Hang Seng rallied to a clear 21,700 resistance and was sold all the way down, closing at 21,293.32, roughly the same as where it opened which is down 347.57 points.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;font-family:arial;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;font-family:arial;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><b>Recommendation:<span style=""> </span></b><span style="">Avoid trading HK stocks unless you are looking to short.<span style=""> </span>Observe until a retest of a short term support at 21,000 convincingly bounces before looking to go long.<span style=""> </span>Short any rally to resistance (21,700) since the trading box has already been violated.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-30087050536094182572008-08-12T20:48:00.008+08:002008-08-12T21:06:40.211+08:00HK Daily and Stock Pick (1200) for August 13,2008<img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5233612987122164210" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTWRw05-5hmITA_Los38glg-YhrJwuhKKORZ6jO96I8CaWyDxdceIjtjUZi8sc2oO7KYkYBK0_To5WouIB-lcEQ6orGmwKDDKFOcCtQFFMWeZXc-QxAQiJU_573yrP5ALNKmlRpFhFGOY/s320/hangseng+intraday.jpg" border="0" /><span style="font-family:arial;"><strong>Hang Seng Market Overview:</strong> </span><strong><span style="font-family:arial;">Up and Down = Directionless</span></strong><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">As was mentioned by my colleagues at work, Hong Kong's Hang Seng is like a roller coaster. I copied below the 10 day 15 minute chart to show just how fast it is to lose money, despite the rallies in the US markets and the falling oil prices. Every rally in Hang Seng is mostly being sold down. HSI is essentially going nowhere but don't think it is a quiet day. It has been violently shifting back and forth from news driven events such as China's CPI, PPI and JP Morgan's $1.5 Bil loss from debt prices. Hong Kong traders are essentially too jittery to say the least. They are either over-bullish or over-bearish. From the daily chart, it is very much apparent that Hang Seng is just going inside a resting box currently moving between 21,600 to 23,000. Don't think shorting is such a good idea, because although the bias is still on the down side, stocks are still oversold and is trying to look for a bottom. </span><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLYw64y86TZfXZtnD0W-ijMgLSv54FCso-vLaR_E8aIgJAkQhCJEroD5T1c9HUdCHEUYPkdbPoAwgpB23BG5GgybR7TXh5N6wvj-zN3LE8eXgDgvL4qYb-ajm4sJBJ2-wTpXN4Mg3v9Cs/s1600-h/hsi+daily.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5233613633811170226" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLYw64y86TZfXZtnD0W-ijMgLSv54FCso-vLaR_E8aIgJAkQhCJEroD5T1c9HUdCHEUYPkdbPoAwgpB23BG5GgybR7TXh5N6wvj-zN3LE8eXgDgvL4qYb-ajm4sJBJ2-wTpXN4Mg3v9Cs/s320/hsi+daily.jpg" border="0" /></a><span style="font-family:arial;"><strong>Recommendation:</strong> If possible, avoid trading HK stocks unless you are very aware about the company's earning reports that may likely beat estimates assuming it is a short term earnings play trade. It seems as though the stocks are mostly news-driven. Note that there are a lot of resistances. Allow the market to correct, or simply probe on good risk-reward ideas. I highlight a stock pick below on 1200 HK.</span><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5233614197958503538" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin3H14o2hJMuQ-EsFEG0N68dfvwfyWZiCd31HLYYV_4UgabEhyphenhyphenKkB1WFowunA1sM0UW9fA1y2NcdSNttPTUvZawtXbPEhLX9u1N-6XKpIm2Sh5hsTlLqfepREk9gkaO7Q89tN_RX5te-0/s320/1200+HK.jpg" border="0" /><strong>Stock Pick: Midland Holdings (1200 HK)</strong><br /><br />Support: 3.30<br />Resistance: 4.50<br />Preferred Entry: 3.55<br /><br />% Risk Reward: 7.04 % Loss, 26.76% Gain<br />Risk Reward Ratio : 25 cents loss for 95 cents gain ~ 1 : 4<br /><br /><br /><br /><div><br /><strong>Technicals:<br /></strong><br />Midland Hldgs (1200 HK) is exhibiting a MACD divergence which may finally breakout tomorrow. Notice that the volume today increased on the upside. RSI is also resting at the same 20 which was the short term low exhibited by the stock last time when it moved from 4 to 5 in a matter of 3 days.<br /><br />The intraday graph confirms our bullish bias for the stock as it bucked the Hangseng Index trend which has fallen afternoon following Shanghai and European indices when news about JPM's losses came out. Notice that Midland Holdings surged from 3.30 to 3.60 during the morning and held on to its gains, closing at the high. This indicates that there is a lot of demand getting in the stock.<br /><br />Midland Hldgs (1200 HK) is exhibiting a MACD divergence which may finally breakout tomorrow. Notice that the volume today increased on the upside. RSI is also resting at the same 20 which was the short term low exhibited by the stock last time when it moved from 4 to 5 in a matter of 3 days.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzqActC1ZR2i1IyYdaFY9lwIaNC_WNS_qh3aDeOumJTu0yHWybboGB0mvnj2cRKapsNJzTDbAq74J6FbirkZxQoG2fDz0I9GVgLhJSWXYjGfsU9Keb2p41VSUn86NzyHHKu_nKRMYJDAI/s1600-h/1200+intraday.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5233615366736162178" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzqActC1ZR2i1IyYdaFY9lwIaNC_WNS_qh3aDeOumJTu0yHWybboGB0mvnj2cRKapsNJzTDbAq74J6FbirkZxQoG2fDz0I9GVgLhJSWXYjGfsU9Keb2p41VSUn86NzyHHKu_nKRMYJDAI/s320/1200+intraday.jpg" border="0" /></a> The intraday graph confirms our bullish bias for the stock as it bucked the Hangseng Index trend which has fallen afternoon following Shanghai and European indices when news about JPM's losses came out. Notice that Midland Holdings surged from 3.30 to 3.60 during the morning and held on to its gains, closing at the high. This indicates that there is a lot of demand getting in the stock.<br /></div><br /><div><strong>Fast Fundamentals:</strong><br />I pasted the data from Bloomberg. Company's P/E ratio is dirt cheap at 4.02, Dividend yield at 3.96% with a return on equity of 47.41%. The company is liquid with value turnover greater than 10 Mil HKD. I am cautious about the prospects of the company, knowing that it's clearly an under performer from the rest of the companies listed in Hong Kong but I believe that there might be a technical rebound. I'll be reading on any research published on the company. </div><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS80pr6UijUurCIgAGXJG9SIRDpqw1yDcUdO93qxcu_M6DZT1mVbcShrmS5uPrkj-c-ELIHtfK9LNuVSVHNZEXZWVZ3mD3D7153T7sQupEzs9loYxkcfj3DS1E3q-eHeT04tRUU_s6JZ4/s1600-h/1200+funda.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5233616373934471954" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS80pr6UijUurCIgAGXJG9SIRDpqw1yDcUdO93qxcu_M6DZT1mVbcShrmS5uPrkj-c-ELIHtfK9LNuVSVHNZEXZWVZ3mD3D7153T7sQupEzs9loYxkcfj3DS1E3q-eHeT04tRUU_s6JZ4/s320/1200+funda.jpg" border="0" /></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-10416051257387411172008-08-10T22:33:00.002+08:002008-08-10T22:51:34.785+08:00Gamecrab<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAn8bPk-5GgG4D28iCCiFH6E3tfu8EEkxMUaWGFRMQxheYCXXKXghzWvg40G_3WAiCo9ouNVo87UUKujJc8TEgM0WhBSr7KP-9g77YMTsjifQPQvGJKXVCdQXIk8-HSqViE_1JZLSMn-c/s1600-h/gamecrab.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAn8bPk-5GgG4D28iCCiFH6E3tfu8EEkxMUaWGFRMQxheYCXXKXghzWvg40G_3WAiCo9ouNVo87UUKujJc8TEgM0WhBSr7KP-9g77YMTsjifQPQvGJKXVCdQXIk8-HSqViE_1JZLSMn-c/s320/gamecrab.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5232900394318614082" /></a><br /><br /><a href="http://gamecrabcafe.com/about.php">Game Crab Cafe</a><br /><br />I don't normally advertise places I love. Like example, I love eating japfood in Inagiku but I don't essentially type it out loud...(though I just have) haha. What i want to say is...I highlighted a picture of gamecrab perhaps because I really like the fact that a friend of mine actually had the guts to risk it and set up a business like this which he loved. I know it's just a partime biz thing..but I applaud him coz he set out what he wanted to do...and made it real.<br /><br />Aniwei, I'm a freako when it comes to boardgames...so I'll surely drop by this place. Plus, their rates and food prices are so cheap. haha...will try it out but from the way the stuffs are presented the site...i like it.<br /><br />good job. clap clap.<br /><br />I copied what this gamecrab does from its site:<br /><br /><br />Game Crab Boardgame Cafe will incite a revolution - a boardgame revolution. In a country flooded with Internet cafes, casinos, badminton and basketball courts, and more pool halls than any sane person would care to count; Game Crab Boardgame Cafe has opened its doors to offer everyone a healthy social alternative. It's a place where everyone has a roaring good time. <br /><br /><br />ok... will go watch usa and china na.baboo.<br /><br />-NixUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6727720670787121427.post-83132262462110494112008-08-10T18:15:00.003+08:002008-08-10T18:28:23.951+08:00Learning to cut lossesBefore I type, I want to caution my invisible readers that below is more of a personal reflection. This is more of a diary as well as a trading blog aniwei so no apologies coming from me for wasting your time.<br /><br />Ok. I'm done defending the things I do.<br />----------------------------------<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />Learning to cut losses.</span> It’s almost cliché but not many people can do it (in any aspect of life). I have learned to cut losses in my trading,but I can't quite apply it sometimes with the way I view relationships. I just had to type it out loud because I figured that by at least typing it in virtual space, I somehow am freeing myself from the shell I've been hiding for quite some years now.<br /><br />Okay. I hate ....though I know I shouldn't even allow hate to be staying inside of me...but I simply hate the silent treatment. <br /><br />I can take awkwardness but I don't understand damn right silence. Oh well, I guess people manage things differently.<br /><br />All I know is that when I learned to cut my loss, I have cut the loss. There's no reason moping about the losses. awryt? so why can't we get on with our lives like all ordinary people? Ok. I might not get it. But there's just this certain thing that cranks my head. Why can't I talk to someone close to me before? What have I done wrong anyway? This is so unfair. If that is the way you will act towards me, then I shall just simply stop even remembering simple birthdays. <br /><br />okay... this is totally wrong of me to even hate. I just don't understand why we can't even be good friends. That's all. I'm not asking for anything. I just can't understand. There. <br /><br />-NixUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0