In the face of such utter annihilation of wealth, I was a contrarian. I sold at market open all my shares and rebalanced my portfolio concentrating them in the only share that I know of. I bought TEL today at 2610. My cutloss is at 2580. If the market gaps down to me tomorrow. I respect it and sell them all. No emotion. Decisive and no long term pretensions for me. I know myself. You know yourself better.

Yes. I have heard all the news about Bear Stearns at a firesale price of $2. I have seen the USDJPY falling at 95.70. I have seen the EUR going to 1.58++. Add to the fact that I also saw the futures trading down to 300 at that point even before markets open in the US tonight. This is in the face of the FED cutting the discount rate of 25 bps, in the face of the March 18 FOMC meeting, and in the face of skyhigh gold and oil prices.

Majority of people in the market can never be exactly right at exactly the right time.

After everyone that can be run in or run out throws in the towel and acts, there isn’t anyone left to take action in the same direction, so the market will finally turn and begin a whole new trend.

1.) When it’s exciting and obvious to everyone that a stock is going higher, sell, because it is too late! Jack Dreyfus said, ‘Sell when there is an overabundance of optimism. When everyone is bubbling optimism and running around trying to get everyone else to buy, they are fully invested. At this point, all they can do is talk. They can’t push the market up anymore. It takes buying power to do that. Buy when you’re scared to death and others are unsure. Wait until you’re happy and tickled to death to sell.

2.) Try to avoid selling on shakeouts (below major price support areas).

Memorable Quote Applicable to the market today(All from O' Neil's book):

When you reach a point where numerous small investors conclude that the only way to make money is to sell short, you’re very late in the down cycle.

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Looking at the chart of TEL, 2610 is actually a support of the trend line.

Am I aggressive? Am I brave? hell no! Here are the objective reasons why I bought and why I'm quick to cut my loss proven wrong by the market tomorrow.

I purposefully deleted the MACD and RSI because they will give false signals during a consolidation. That consolidation I think will hold. Now, I know that consolidation is subject to a lot of contesting especially since people in the news are saying that today signaled a bear market when PCOMP fell to 2790. Perhaps... however, based on this chart and based on TEL's market capitalization in the PSEI. I'm not pulling all my funds out of TEL.

Everyone's too smart today. Everyone says its a bear market. Everyone said it broke the trendline. Well, when everyone throws the towel. Who's left to sell tomorrow?

They say that 80% of the market loses while 20% smart money know when to stand back and wait on what the market is telling them. The market told me the following:

VIX is once again above 30 - this means real fear by the people (the masses)

Among the traders I consider smart enough to know and be objective with this market, they're biased either to stay on the long side or just be in the sidelines.

They are traderfeed,tradermike,quantifiableedges,vix and more. 100% or all of them are contrarian and just by reading their analyses. You've got a real reason to be bullish. Hell, I know I'd be squashed when its not but I know when to respect my support and cut when I know I'm dead.

Traders' comments in blogs I read:

Aug ’07 low was the initial market’s knee-jerk reaction to the ‘subprime mortgages disaster’-Trader Mike

In a bear market or volatile markets, opportunities lies in intra-days ‘swing trades’ (playing the 2-3 days market bounce) and ‘position trades’ or ‘break-out plays’ are absolutely not advisable at this time.

The double bottom will hold- (on financials)- by Traderfeed

That is the kind of panic that would give me great confidence to buy. As I have mentioned here in the past couple of weeks I am a die hard contrarian and just feel we need higher readings then normal this time to get a longer term bottom in. 1,200 has strong support from 2005 on th chart, but I don’t want to wait until it gets all the way to 1,200 to buy, as we might not get there. It should be an interesting week

Like most sentiment measures, this one should also be taken with a spoonful of contrarianism: up is down, down is up. Which means that when consumers are most pessimistic, we have the best opportunity to go long. And when consumers are on average jumping for joy, we have to batten down the hatches. - (here's a link)

- Nix

Haha. Just my second day of trying to impose a format and I can't seem to follow this organized set up. Pasensya.

My brain's a little bit dizzy. It's just 945pm and I want to sleep already. haha.

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Commentary on the overall market behavior of PSEI today:

PSEI - Just down .90 pts? Really? It certainly didn't feel that way for me. haha.

You see...stocks like MEG have gone down to 2.10, went as low as 2.06 Certainly, MEG is going down to 1.95 or 2.00 support now (technical aspects). Of course, fundamentals will have to be a different thing now. For those who bought in early and were not able to cut with the break of the 2.46 support before, I think what you can do is

1.) If the position is not in margin anyway, you can just keep the money frozen. If you cut loss at 2.44 like I did, good for you.
2.) It really depends with you. They say entry is always a science, exit is more of an art. Now, while the exit here has been defined to leave at 2.44 no matter what, since you didn't follow that rule, how else would I expect you to do the same when I say to lighten down your position? Up to you...It's up to you on what u want to do with your money. Maybe average it down on a successful bounce from 2 peso support? That seems to be a good entry level.

GLO still down to 1465. AC went down to 430 low, closed at 432.50, TEL hanging at 2880 - very prone to go down. Don't believe in TEL. It's floating without clear support.

PCOR @ 5.9? hmm.... unbelievable resilience.

GEO broke support today when it created intraday lows of 1.16 The good thing is that there was significant volume making it close to 1.18

All I know is that GEO will be trading very thin volumes again. Many have been "burned" trading this stock...so, my suggestion...since you've bought GEO anyway.

1.) keep that money frozen. volatility will get it back to ur price.
2.) u can cut loss already at 1.24 or higher while it's still manageable (depends really on your trading style.)

My recommendation:

Stay light. Raise cash. Accumulate AC (on successful bounces with good volumes).

Don't buy AC first. From the looks of it, it might break the 430 support if it can't close strongly awhile ago. May go down to 400. If you did buy at 432.50, 435 (that's a good risk/reward entry pa rin. I think just hold it.) If you're not an active trader, and just leave it...sue me if this doesn't go up from its previous levels today. The question though is WHEN haha...baka months?a year? hmmm... I don't really know. I'm not a fortune teller.

Also, I think GLO might go to 1405 (earlier support.) I think 1450 will not be respected. But let's wait and see.


Why i think it will break supports and test the double support is because

1.) FGEN is now at 40.50
2.) FPH is at 47

lots of stocks are not respecting their supports.

okay. im antok.

pasensya.....gonna sleep early.

night

- Nix

First of all, I have been quite messy with my trades, my time tables, and in fact even with posting here in my trading blog. Here are some resolutions I am planning to do.

-------> Creating a format and time: Will upload ideas before 7:30pm (if post is not available, check it the next day before 9am) just so things will be predictable with me.

Format: PSEI daily/weekly (on mondays) + stocklist
Updates on any recommendations before
Interesting stuff found from everywhere + rants + opinions etc.

When do i start this format? hmm... i'll try to start it today, tell me if it works.

Some segways:
Drank lots of alcohol for my sister's party, threw up, slept late, watched movie atonement, been a sloth. Still went to church, ate more, bought books, played basket and won.woohoo. sloth after then thought about money matters. and now..im writing ......after chatting and doing lots of unproductive stuffs.
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A. PSEI Weekly Outlook

- PSEI is biased downwards and still has 130 pts more downside from its present 3080 closing price last Friday to test support of 2953 (previous low last Jan 22, 2008)
- still in the negative MACD region, don't fool yourself thinking we can be more bullish because of the rally of the DOW last friday. Even if DOW closes high when my eyes close tonight, if it's not more than 1%, I wouldn't believe it.
-RSI has further downside. Volume still thin

Opinions:
Last Friday's market action especially with the heavy selling of MEG, GLO, RLC , AC just to name the few blue chips that were really hammered is to me just an appetizer, to what's coming ahead. I like to analogize the market's action similar to a game of chess. Weaker pawns are sacrificed first, the king/queens will be the last to fall to confirm that the kingdom is lost.

Anyway, I didn't want to be so metaphorical about it but TEL (king of our PSEI with the highest market cap) is still at 2840. If you think we're bottoming out, we're not. Perhaps when TEL moves back to around 2500-2600 levels, then maybe, but we still don't know. If you look at the bishops and queens, they're quite getting there. GLO is going back to its support of 1450 or maybe 1405? for the bigger triangle?, RLC going back to its support of 11.25 (which i think is prone to be broken, cross fingers.). AC going back to 430/415. MEG either stays afloat in the 2.20 to 2.44 range or floors down to 1.95 support.

My opinion: if you're in cash, good for you. Place a watch list on the blue chips. Buy gradually and cautiously. Go for defensive natures. I like TEL @ 2585, GLO @ 1405/1450, AC @ 430. Wait for a successful bounce before entering.

If you're in a position- look at charts, do ur own homework. Check if your trades are weak and have to be lightened. If you think they are ones that can be bought more (once it bounces from support.) by all means, do so. For me, there's a distinction between averaging down a losing stock , which you clearly know is losing, and a stock that has shown a reversal. It's just that we tend to notice our favorite stocks doing the reversals.

My belief: Sell the rallies. I read Jensen's weekly on psei and he (from jensendkc.blogspot.com) has a chart drawing that shows PSEI might be entering a head and shoulders bottom which is bullish. To me, it's quite too early to tell. I'd wait things out to play its own pattern for a while. I won't want to enter too soon. Though I don't think he is recommending any buys for the moment, the drawing is left to be a guide that things may go up from a technical bounce of the support. I believe this is the case when TEL and the heavy weights bounce from support.

For tomorrow: I think if DOW closes positive tomorrow, take advantage of market strength to exit positions. Raise cash and buy the dips which I think can come anytime this week.

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Selected Stocks: TEL, AC, GLO

Rationale: I want to concentrate on the big blue chips. Just my personal view on betting on the strong ones. Inspiration comes from this simple quote:

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet."- Damon Runyon

If there is a technical bounce, then i'm gonna bet on what I perceive to be the strong ones in PSEI. I've had it with basura stocks haha. - I sound so bitter. I'll update on the basura Angping stocks nextime. oks?

Charts:
1.) TEL - box pattern
Buy:
Entry: Successful bounce from Jan 22 lows, around 2500-2585
Cut loss- intraday penetration on Jan 22 lows or a close below Jan 22 closing price.
Target: 3000/2800
Potential upside: whopping 12.5% to 25%
Observations: Expectations of another voltes V

2.) GLO - box pattern
Buy:
Entry: Successful bounce lows, either around 1405 or 1450?
Cut loss- intraday penetration on lows
Target: 1605
Potential upside: More than 10%
Observations: Expectations of another technical bounce



3.) AC- MACD Bullish Divergence

Buy: Accumulate at 415 to 430 levels
TP: 530 ( di ako nakainteractive charts kaya di exact)
Cutloss - as much as possible, I think you only cut loss when it falls lower than the support made last August 17. I recommend though not to cut. This can be seen as either a short term / medium term position entry.

Potential upside: For short term: could be around 20%, For medium term, greater than 20% - prone to volatility though.

Snippets:

I wanted to share more on the "animal menagerie" that i saw in a book. Kwento ko tomorrow inaantok ako tas early gising eh. byee

sneak peak :

Bulls earn money, Bears earn money, Pigs get slaughtered.

Lesson of the story: Greedy pigs die in the market. But greed is good..so we will introduce the wolf in this animal menagerie tomorrow. see ya.


- Nix