HK Daily Picks- 08-21-08 (2600)  

Posted by Book Eater

Hang Seng Market Overview:

Hold your horses… Healthy correction is a given. Learn to look before you leap.

Most traders today did not find themselves happy upon seeing the downtick at the open of Hang Seng. I guess it was only I who was happy because the HK market was giving an entrance for me to participate in a plausible short term rally. The momentum traders who chased stocks yesterday are now back to reality and are supposed to cut their losses or stand the volatility, while I was happy watching the correction. Learn to look before you leap. I didn’t chase stocks yesterday since it passed through my buying point, watched patiently for a retracement to better entry levels and bought a few commodity stocks for tomorrow. Yesterday, while everyone was giddy about the government package. I was checking my trend lines to see if any breakouts were made. I was happy that there was none and the correction today proved very good in shaking out all the bottom callers who blindly chased stocks without looking at the risks. Mind you that the market could have also broken out on the upside today and I would have to have bought and chased the prices already, since a reversal would have already been in play. Nevertheless, the market rewarded the patient ones. :)

Hang Seng index opened at 20,762.65, roughly 200 points down from yesterday’s close and did the opposite today compared to yesterday. It steadily moved lower to close 539.20 points down closing at 20,392.06. It should be noted that in today’s down day, what makes this correction healthy is that it is still within the trading box. The real support according to technical analysis is 20,200 which suggests about 200 points down from today’s close. This should be expected. Nevertheless, we should commend Hong Kong markets despite the downtick because the sell off was contained in weak sectors. Good companies and sectoral plays such as energy and commodities still closed higher today (E.g. 2600 HK or Chalco, 358 HK or Jiangxi Copper as well as 688 HK or China Overseas Land). This indicates to traders that strength in commodities will be the theme for the US markets tonight as well as a plausible catalyst for tomorrow or the next day’s HK rally. It should be noted that checking the movements of EUR versus the USD, as well as the price of oil would have lead to the conclusion that the dollar strength is easing, while commodities are oversold.

Recommendation: Play the sectoral theme. Energy and commodities are good probes. Good setup featured in the stock pick is 2600 HK (Chalco). Watch the steel stocks : 347 HK (Angang Steel) as well as 323 HK (Maanshan Iron and Steel). Worldwide commodity strength can propel these stocks to the upside, fundamental wise and chart wise.

Stock Picks:
Chalco (2600)

I like Chalco because this is a clear cut technical set up with risks to the upside. First, after the profit taking in Chalco today, the sell off stopped at 6.40 to 6.50 levels and closed to the upside. It should be noted that with the 400+ points move in Hang Seng yesterday, it is not surprising for short term traders to take profits near the 6.80 to 6.90 levels since the overall sentiment in the index is down today. What’s commendable is that the sell off stopped at the level of yesterday’s breakout. Note that this is particularly positive for short term traders because most aluminum charts in the US are all oversold and have all shot up higher on the upside. Commodities such as oil are also setting up for a rally. From an inter market analysis’ point of view, this stock is affirming that demand for the stock is higher than the selling pressure. Daily chart’s beautiful as the parabolic buy signal is there as well as a MACD divergence. Risk reward ratios are also compelling.

Support: 6.20
Resistance: 6.90/7.60
Preferred Entry: 6.40
Risk Reward Ratio: 50 cents gain, 20 cents loss (2.25) or 120 cents gain, 20 cents loss (6)

(See the chart through : Just type HK:2600, 1 yr daily chart and 10 day 15 minute charts) Thanks


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