PCOMP is in a short term uptrend. We finally moved with the 32 day moving average. As can be seen from the PCOMP daily chart, the volume is just okay but at least our MACD is higher than the 0 line. We are in positive territory. Also, unlike the RSI and price being divergent in the short term rally last February 2008, the price and the RSI right now have went in the same direction and is higher than 50.

Intermarkets analysis also confirm this uptrend. The US indices right now are higher than the 50day moving averages. The corrections have been healthy pullbacks and should be seen as window opportunities to enter instead of fear. Maintain your risk/account ratio of 2% and risk reward ratio greater than 3 for higher batting averages. Tradermike.net already has it in his blog if you are lazy to look for yourself.

If you also look at commodities, they're all making a sell signal giving us a more sustainable rally this time. Try checking the charts to confirm this for yourself:)

The trend right now is with the bulls. However, he's a fickle friend. He may give a few pullbacks here and there. Just stay on top of your noses.

Here's my stock picks and pricks (those I chose which were wrong):
Stock Picks


1.) AC - Looks like a possible breakout that will test next resistance at 450

Volume - Greater than average by 100%
Price Line-Big White Candle closing near the highs of 420
MACD- made a cross signal and is above zero line
Stochastics - Made a cross signal

Preferred entries: Hope there's a chance to hop in this train at below 420 (any pullbacks) but if not, then 422.50 will be the cheapest play around here.

Target price: 450
Cutloss price: 397.50 (A break of 400).


2.) MWC - Doji pattern, above moving averages of 32,65,124. Volume is greater than average by about 30%, MACD cross buy signal, STS cross buy signal.

Entry: 17.75/18
Target price: 19/19.25
Cutloss: 17


3.) ICT - Just read A bull in a bear market's analysis. It's there already.

Stock Pricks (They hurt like cactus.)

1.) NI - The stock seemed to have been toppish. The volume surge the past days werent warranted. As you can see, the stock cannot go higher than 14.75 pesos anymore. Volumes have declined tremendously, stochastics also gave a sell signal. Even if MACD is at the positive zero line. There's no reason to cling to this stock when there's so much action elsewhere.

Recommendation: Cut your loss if you have any shares. Sell it down if need be.


2.) CMT - this stock is also toppish. The resistance comes at Php1.00, volumes are very low despite the 72 point surge of the PSEI. Stochastics also tell us a sell signal.

Cut your losses








- Nix

Lines I Liked:

1.) What's noteworthy isn't who made it, but how they got there.-Michael Moe
2.) When wrong, admit it. The worst thing to do is rationalize a mistake. Be intellectually honest. Make decisions based on current facts, not what you had thought to begin with.-Michael Moe
3.) Be passionate about investing but dispassionate about the investment.-Michael Moe
4.) Don't trade when you can't afford to lose.-Michael Moe
5) Longterm investment success results from the strength of the investment strategy, rather than the individual wins and losses. - Hildy Richelson
6.) I just wait until there's money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. - James Rogers
7.) If you can't take a small loss, sooner or later, you will take the mother of all losses - Jack Schwager
8.) Everybody gets what they want out of the market. - Ed Seykota

A Short Personal Reflection:
It's been a quick ride down and up, with little to show for it except some market experience. James Rogers tells us the wisdom of patience, and trading only when the odds of profits are with us. Richelson asks us to fine tune our trading system, our strategies. He emphasizes looking at the big picture of our strategy instead of the individual wins and losses. Ed Seykota reminds us that the market is a what you see what you get kind of person. If we have lost our discipline, market gives us what we deserve. Jack Schwager warns us on our inability to cut our losses short. Michael Moe shows us that trading involves losing. We have to face those facts, and be dispassionate with our investments. He also tells us that, who made millions in the stock market isn't important, it's how they became that's most important. So lesson is to learn that system. Whether you are a technical purist, a hardcore fundamentalist, or a hybrid of the two, augment and personalize your system to fit those that work in the market.

(I'll write my investment philosophy in the next posts.)

Market Post-Analyses :

Don't Fight the FED: The key to the rally was the Fed's determination to stem the downward spiral, and that should never be underestimated.

This week, we've seen many stocks that were extremely oversold that had gone ripe for a rally.

It's worth noting, that missing an opportunity is as bad as being on the wrong side of the trade.

So let us learn from what had happened and what worked

FGEN, FPH, MEG all rose pretty well this week as well as most banking stocks such as MBT, BPI, BDO and NRCP. Gains were as high as 30% and as low as 5% minimum for a week or less' trade. By the way, TEL shot up to 2805. Remember I bought TEL at 2610 last week? Am I spiteful? Kinda...but the lesson was I should have bought when I knew I was already wrong. I was late in buying into this market at around Tuesday so I only rode the FPH rally.

If you checked the charts I mentioned above, they all exhibited bullish divergences.

Lower lows, higher MACDs.

The key here though is liquidity. These stocks have done better than other companies in their respective sectors mainly because people are more interested in them as can be seen with the large volumes accompanied with them. For those who have observed the markets, when ALI went below 10 pesos, trading at prices of 9.4, 9.5 etc, most of the buyers were local domestic houses while most of the sellers were foreign fund houses. We've seen ALI go up to 11.50 this week and retreating to close at around 10.50, nevertheless it still made a good run up.

Stock Alert (3/28/08 -BUY: AC)

Preferred Entry: 382.50<=AC<=390

Cutloss: AC<=380

Reward; 425,430,450

On March 28,2008, there was an increase in the volume of AC, Volumes were at least 50% higher than normal average indicating a possible intermediate bottom. From charts, it closed at 392.50, formed a white bullish hammer. Risk Reward Ratio is good as the cutloss in price is a break below previous low of 382.50 (which by the way was retested as a support today) by the market. This has formed bullish divergence for quite some time now (2 weeks in the making). When foreigners finish their selling, this is bound to trade higher. RESPECT YOUR SUPPORTS. Remember, you shouldn't trade if you don't know how to cut your losses or follow your trading rules.

Bear Market Trading/Investing:

1.) Investors could tactically profit take into strength but position to buy back on weakness. Into any strength, investors need to position for profit-taking as markets recover.

Market Insights:

The recession call in the US is almost a consensus call now. That being said, quarter to quarter economic contraction in the US is likely to be limited to the first two quarters, with a gradual recovery thereafter. There are credible reasons to suggest some kind of bottoming and recovery in the second half:

• Fed funds cut by 300bp bringing real rates to zero, and discount rate cut by 375bp
• ABCP and MBS accepted at discount window
• Paulson interest rate freeze program
• New liquidity facilities for banks – TAF, TSLF
• Raising of conforming loan limits
• ‘Project Lifeline’ to halt foreclosure on mortgages
• Extension of credit to primary dealers
• OFHEO eases Fannie and Freddie’s capital requirements and permit them to expand mortgage portfolios.

Haha. Just my second day of trying to impose a format and I can't seem to follow this organized set up. Pasensya.

My brain's a little bit dizzy. It's just 945pm and I want to sleep already. haha.

_____________________________________________________________
Commentary on the overall market behavior of PSEI today:

PSEI - Just down .90 pts? Really? It certainly didn't feel that way for me. haha.

You see...stocks like MEG have gone down to 2.10, went as low as 2.06 Certainly, MEG is going down to 1.95 or 2.00 support now (technical aspects). Of course, fundamentals will have to be a different thing now. For those who bought in early and were not able to cut with the break of the 2.46 support before, I think what you can do is

1.) If the position is not in margin anyway, you can just keep the money frozen. If you cut loss at 2.44 like I did, good for you.
2.) It really depends with you. They say entry is always a science, exit is more of an art. Now, while the exit here has been defined to leave at 2.44 no matter what, since you didn't follow that rule, how else would I expect you to do the same when I say to lighten down your position? Up to you...It's up to you on what u want to do with your money. Maybe average it down on a successful bounce from 2 peso support? That seems to be a good entry level.

GLO still down to 1465. AC went down to 430 low, closed at 432.50, TEL hanging at 2880 - very prone to go down. Don't believe in TEL. It's floating without clear support.

PCOR @ 5.9? hmm.... unbelievable resilience.

GEO broke support today when it created intraday lows of 1.16 The good thing is that there was significant volume making it close to 1.18

All I know is that GEO will be trading very thin volumes again. Many have been "burned" trading this stock...so, my suggestion...since you've bought GEO anyway.

1.) keep that money frozen. volatility will get it back to ur price.
2.) u can cut loss already at 1.24 or higher while it's still manageable (depends really on your trading style.)

My recommendation:

Stay light. Raise cash. Accumulate AC (on successful bounces with good volumes).

Don't buy AC first. From the looks of it, it might break the 430 support if it can't close strongly awhile ago. May go down to 400. If you did buy at 432.50, 435 (that's a good risk/reward entry pa rin. I think just hold it.) If you're not an active trader, and just leave it...sue me if this doesn't go up from its previous levels today. The question though is WHEN haha...baka months?a year? hmmm... I don't really know. I'm not a fortune teller.

Also, I think GLO might go to 1405 (earlier support.) I think 1450 will not be respected. But let's wait and see.


Why i think it will break supports and test the double support is because

1.) FGEN is now at 40.50
2.) FPH is at 47

lots of stocks are not respecting their supports.

okay. im antok.

pasensya.....gonna sleep early.

night

- Nix

First of all, I have been quite messy with my trades, my time tables, and in fact even with posting here in my trading blog. Here are some resolutions I am planning to do.

-------> Creating a format and time: Will upload ideas before 7:30pm (if post is not available, check it the next day before 9am) just so things will be predictable with me.

Format: PSEI daily/weekly (on mondays) + stocklist
Updates on any recommendations before
Interesting stuff found from everywhere + rants + opinions etc.

When do i start this format? hmm... i'll try to start it today, tell me if it works.

Some segways:
Drank lots of alcohol for my sister's party, threw up, slept late, watched movie atonement, been a sloth. Still went to church, ate more, bought books, played basket and won.woohoo. sloth after then thought about money matters. and now..im writing ......after chatting and doing lots of unproductive stuffs.
____________________________________________________________________

A. PSEI Weekly Outlook

- PSEI is biased downwards and still has 130 pts more downside from its present 3080 closing price last Friday to test support of 2953 (previous low last Jan 22, 2008)
- still in the negative MACD region, don't fool yourself thinking we can be more bullish because of the rally of the DOW last friday. Even if DOW closes high when my eyes close tonight, if it's not more than 1%, I wouldn't believe it.
-RSI has further downside. Volume still thin

Opinions:
Last Friday's market action especially with the heavy selling of MEG, GLO, RLC , AC just to name the few blue chips that were really hammered is to me just an appetizer, to what's coming ahead. I like to analogize the market's action similar to a game of chess. Weaker pawns are sacrificed first, the king/queens will be the last to fall to confirm that the kingdom is lost.

Anyway, I didn't want to be so metaphorical about it but TEL (king of our PSEI with the highest market cap) is still at 2840. If you think we're bottoming out, we're not. Perhaps when TEL moves back to around 2500-2600 levels, then maybe, but we still don't know. If you look at the bishops and queens, they're quite getting there. GLO is going back to its support of 1450 or maybe 1405? for the bigger triangle?, RLC going back to its support of 11.25 (which i think is prone to be broken, cross fingers.). AC going back to 430/415. MEG either stays afloat in the 2.20 to 2.44 range or floors down to 1.95 support.

My opinion: if you're in cash, good for you. Place a watch list on the blue chips. Buy gradually and cautiously. Go for defensive natures. I like TEL @ 2585, GLO @ 1405/1450, AC @ 430. Wait for a successful bounce before entering.

If you're in a position- look at charts, do ur own homework. Check if your trades are weak and have to be lightened. If you think they are ones that can be bought more (once it bounces from support.) by all means, do so. For me, there's a distinction between averaging down a losing stock , which you clearly know is losing, and a stock that has shown a reversal. It's just that we tend to notice our favorite stocks doing the reversals.

My belief: Sell the rallies. I read Jensen's weekly on psei and he (from jensendkc.blogspot.com) has a chart drawing that shows PSEI might be entering a head and shoulders bottom which is bullish. To me, it's quite too early to tell. I'd wait things out to play its own pattern for a while. I won't want to enter too soon. Though I don't think he is recommending any buys for the moment, the drawing is left to be a guide that things may go up from a technical bounce of the support. I believe this is the case when TEL and the heavy weights bounce from support.

For tomorrow: I think if DOW closes positive tomorrow, take advantage of market strength to exit positions. Raise cash and buy the dips which I think can come anytime this week.

___________________________________________________________________

Selected Stocks: TEL, AC, GLO

Rationale: I want to concentrate on the big blue chips. Just my personal view on betting on the strong ones. Inspiration comes from this simple quote:

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet."- Damon Runyon

If there is a technical bounce, then i'm gonna bet on what I perceive to be the strong ones in PSEI. I've had it with basura stocks haha. - I sound so bitter. I'll update on the basura Angping stocks nextime. oks?

Charts:
1.) TEL - box pattern
Buy:
Entry: Successful bounce from Jan 22 lows, around 2500-2585
Cut loss- intraday penetration on Jan 22 lows or a close below Jan 22 closing price.
Target: 3000/2800
Potential upside: whopping 12.5% to 25%
Observations: Expectations of another voltes V

2.) GLO - box pattern
Buy:
Entry: Successful bounce lows, either around 1405 or 1450?
Cut loss- intraday penetration on lows
Target: 1605
Potential upside: More than 10%
Observations: Expectations of another technical bounce



3.) AC- MACD Bullish Divergence

Buy: Accumulate at 415 to 430 levels
TP: 530 ( di ako nakainteractive charts kaya di exact)
Cutloss - as much as possible, I think you only cut loss when it falls lower than the support made last August 17. I recommend though not to cut. This can be seen as either a short term / medium term position entry.

Potential upside: For short term: could be around 20%, For medium term, greater than 20% - prone to volatility though.

Snippets:

I wanted to share more on the "animal menagerie" that i saw in a book. Kwento ko tomorrow inaantok ako tas early gising eh. byee

sneak peak :

Bulls earn money, Bears earn money, Pigs get slaughtered.

Lesson of the story: Greedy pigs die in the market. But greed is good..so we will introduce the wolf in this animal menagerie tomorrow. see ya.


- Nix

Perhaps the only reason why I'm not too happy when all the Angping stocks went up is that I didn't have more shares.

It's not greed. Okay..So it is greed. But to me it was more of lack of patience.

I've been patiently accumulating shares of GEO for the past week. My trading mistake was letting go too early. There were some GTC orders at 1.22, 1.28 with costs of 1.18, 1.16

I knew that the TP was 1.42, 1.80. With the surge today. I believe GEO will be the next PAX. So i bought back the shares i sold at costs of 1.30 and 1.32. Price chasing can be called but momentum's there. Everything's there. So maybe the lesson is to wait patiently on stocks that have a technical painting.

As for PAX, perhaps the only thing I also hate myself for is that I bought just a few shares. Sold everything today at different prices. some at 5, some at 5.50, some at 5.80, 5.40. It was a frenzy. That's all I can say.

I still have my GLO (bought a lot awhile ago at 1565, 1570), This is more of a patient play. I really should wait and ride this one out. Perhaps that's the thing with stocks. When they explode, they literally explode. Either you're on the plane or you're left behind. That's why I'm holding on with my FLI shares at supports of 1.04/1.06. That's also why I'm holding on with my shares of MEG at 2.55 (with support of 2.50), and also my FPH which really really is getting me kinda impatient... @ 52.50 average price.

See chart below for the stocks I love to pick up at their ground floor support levels:
1.) RLC - there's a fundamental reason for this..mainly that what's being valued in the price is just the NAV of the malls and hotels. everything else: bpo,housing, office are literally free. To know more, read the Citisec research to be released soon on RLC.

I like to pick it up at a good bounce from its support before of 11.25. So I'm buying at 11.50/11.75

2.) AC - another fundamental play and buying on support levels. 440/450 sigh, I'm raising my ground floors.haha..mukhang nasa 2nd floor na ung prices hehe.

3.) GEO - i love this stock period. I only hate myself for not buying more shares and having sold some too early damnit.

In summary, i think this is gonna be a wonderful week.
- Nix