Haha. Just my second day of trying to impose a format and I can't seem to follow this organized set up. Pasensya.

My brain's a little bit dizzy. It's just 945pm and I want to sleep already. haha.

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Commentary on the overall market behavior of PSEI today:

PSEI - Just down .90 pts? Really? It certainly didn't feel that way for me. haha.

You see...stocks like MEG have gone down to 2.10, went as low as 2.06 Certainly, MEG is going down to 1.95 or 2.00 support now (technical aspects). Of course, fundamentals will have to be a different thing now. For those who bought in early and were not able to cut with the break of the 2.46 support before, I think what you can do is

1.) If the position is not in margin anyway, you can just keep the money frozen. If you cut loss at 2.44 like I did, good for you.
2.) It really depends with you. They say entry is always a science, exit is more of an art. Now, while the exit here has been defined to leave at 2.44 no matter what, since you didn't follow that rule, how else would I expect you to do the same when I say to lighten down your position? Up to you...It's up to you on what u want to do with your money. Maybe average it down on a successful bounce from 2 peso support? That seems to be a good entry level.

GLO still down to 1465. AC went down to 430 low, closed at 432.50, TEL hanging at 2880 - very prone to go down. Don't believe in TEL. It's floating without clear support.

PCOR @ 5.9? hmm.... unbelievable resilience.

GEO broke support today when it created intraday lows of 1.16 The good thing is that there was significant volume making it close to 1.18

All I know is that GEO will be trading very thin volumes again. Many have been "burned" trading this stock...so, my suggestion...since you've bought GEO anyway.

1.) keep that money frozen. volatility will get it back to ur price.
2.) u can cut loss already at 1.24 or higher while it's still manageable (depends really on your trading style.)

My recommendation:

Stay light. Raise cash. Accumulate AC (on successful bounces with good volumes).

Don't buy AC first. From the looks of it, it might break the 430 support if it can't close strongly awhile ago. May go down to 400. If you did buy at 432.50, 435 (that's a good risk/reward entry pa rin. I think just hold it.) If you're not an active trader, and just leave it...sue me if this doesn't go up from its previous levels today. The question though is WHEN haha...baka months?a year? hmmm... I don't really know. I'm not a fortune teller.

Also, I think GLO might go to 1405 (earlier support.) I think 1450 will not be respected. But let's wait and see.


Why i think it will break supports and test the double support is because

1.) FGEN is now at 40.50
2.) FPH is at 47

lots of stocks are not respecting their supports.

okay. im antok.

pasensya.....gonna sleep early.

night

- Nix

Updates on MBT:

I show below a graph of MBT. I traded this when I listened to Mr. Fitz's recommendation last Wednesday. Today however, looking at the charts. This is going to have a very hard time going up. What I usually do when market is uncertain is to stay away, perhaps like most people. So, today, I'm staying out of MBT, from purchase price of 45 with a TP of 50. cutting the loss to 43.50 or 43 today. It couldn't get past previous highs and closed at the lows showing weakness. All other technical indicators say so as well.

Updates on GEO:
The downtrendline of GEO is still intact. The 1.46 price that happened just this tuesday was a valid break of resistance, however it retreated to close at 1.30, a crucial support line. Yesterday, the stock showed further weakening falling intraday to as low as 1.26

My recommendation: Lighten for a while but take a good watch as prices still made higher lows and are above key support levels of 1.24 . A possible move will be to sell at prices close to 1.30 or higher as much as possible, and wait for re-entry from a successful bounce of 1.24 (even if its just an intraday thing.)

If this falls near 1.18, we can see the stock drift sideways with a range of 1.12 to 1.18 again with heavy resistance at 1.22, however, since we haven't entered that scenario. Let's not exit all our positions just yet.

Also, momentum indicators : RSI and MACD still point to a divergence indicating some more upside.

If this holds, don't panic sell yet. Just lighten. Take a look at Double support trailing stops below. Will help in position sizing.

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Taken from Rob Hana of quanitifiableedges.blogspot.com and told by my ahia david to me during a conversation about my bad entry point and wrong position sizing with GEO. Pretty helpful. Read up.

Whenever we trade---size the position using a break of the double support trailing stop. Here's how it works:


The Double Support Trailing Stop
by Rob Hana
The Concept
Like most traders, I have a whole checklist of criteria that must be met before I will consider purchasing a stock. I spend a substantial amount of time researching potential candidates so that I may find a few stocks that meet my criteria. One of the most frustrating and difficult things for me is finding a great stock, buying it at the right time, and then being stopped out of it just before it reverses and goes on to huge gains. Having traded in multiple time frames over the years I have experienced this frustration with day, swing, and intermediate term trades. To keep myself in winning trades longer and avoid being shaken out early, I developed my “Double Support Trailing Stop Technique”. I will show an example of this technique on an intermediate term trade, but have successfully employed it in many different time frames, and originally created it for my day trades.

The idea is simple. If I require a large numbers of reasons to enter a trade, I should require more than just one reason to exit it if I want to catch as much of the move as possible. I will therefore require two levels of support to be broken before I will PERMANENTLY & COMPLETELY exit a trade. How you define support does not really matter. You can use pullbacks, consolidation lows (or highs), fibonacci’s, moving averages, trend lines, or whatever fits your trading style.

for more info, just go to his website. Thanks.


- Nix

The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor." ~ Jesse Livermore

A good practice is to periodically during the trading day make note of our thoughts, feelings, and physical sensations and correlate those to market behavior at the time and to our trading decisions and outcomes. Over time, you will notice distinctive patterns: certain constellations of thoughts, feelings, and sensations that recur under challenging trading conditions. Once you observe your own anxiety-related patterns and actually see how they’re interfering with decision-making, you’re in a much better place to interrupt and change those patterns - Brett Steenbarger, Phd

Lesson: Do your homeworks. Control those emotions.
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US market traders are asking themselves whether yesterday's performance of dropping 168 pts from its intraday high closing down 10 pts is an ugly gap up failure.

Rob Hanna shows the light. According to quantifiableedges.blogspot.com, He says if you thought today looked bad and you were worried about the market going forward because of it – you shouldn’t be.

Reasons are :
1.) The Nasdaq 100 had 52 occurrences since 1986 where market gapped up over 1% and then finished negative on the day. 54% of which closed higher the next day.
2.) Chance of being up on any day over the period was also 54%.
3.) Over next 3 to 5 days, NDX has a 55.5% and 56.5% chance of closing higher.
4.) Average gains over the period: 1 day following, market goes up .4%, average week - 1.3% gain. These are higher than normal days of 1 day average up of .3% and 1 week average up of .6%

Comments: Of course, let's not discount that the panic selling in the US was partly because the 100 USD oil may be inflationary giving FED a harder time to cut rates. Also, the study here does not discount a bull market trend. BUT AREN"T WE ALSO IN A BULL TREND? we havent broken the 20 month MAs anyway? For those who attended the CAF, they can relate why i'm saying this hehe.

My side comments on the Philippine market:
People who traded GEO were probably panicky today. They may be asking.. Why did it close at the low? Why did it close at 1.30? Is this a sign of weakness? Same goes for the other Angping stocks.

My Answer:
Those who are trading GEO should be well aware that this is a stock that is heavily market manipulated. It had extension gains awhile ago amid the 168 pt drop of the US. It was very tempting for profit taking. What's notable is that it broke the 1.42 resistance. That means, this will trade higher up for the next few days.

My recommendation:

Buy the dips, hold on. Don't panic. As one trader did advice: Trade confidently and cautiously.

Ask yourself: Did it hold the support? YES! 1.30 was the support of GEO.
Was there significant volume? YES! almost same as yesterday's volume.
Was average buying price today higher than yesterday? YES! 1.39 is the average buy price today.

So I ask..anyone who doubted GEO...technically speaking of course...kasi kung fundamentals ibang usapan yan.

WHY did you sell your GEO shares? near the lows?

And if you sold at the 1.40-1.46 etc. Good for you. I hope you bought them back at the 1.30-1.32 prices awhile ago.

Don't panic.

- Nix

Perhaps the only reason why I'm not too happy when all the Angping stocks went up is that I didn't have more shares.

It's not greed. Okay..So it is greed. But to me it was more of lack of patience.

I've been patiently accumulating shares of GEO for the past week. My trading mistake was letting go too early. There were some GTC orders at 1.22, 1.28 with costs of 1.18, 1.16

I knew that the TP was 1.42, 1.80. With the surge today. I believe GEO will be the next PAX. So i bought back the shares i sold at costs of 1.30 and 1.32. Price chasing can be called but momentum's there. Everything's there. So maybe the lesson is to wait patiently on stocks that have a technical painting.

As for PAX, perhaps the only thing I also hate myself for is that I bought just a few shares. Sold everything today at different prices. some at 5, some at 5.50, some at 5.80, 5.40. It was a frenzy. That's all I can say.

I still have my GLO (bought a lot awhile ago at 1565, 1570), This is more of a patient play. I really should wait and ride this one out. Perhaps that's the thing with stocks. When they explode, they literally explode. Either you're on the plane or you're left behind. That's why I'm holding on with my FLI shares at supports of 1.04/1.06. That's also why I'm holding on with my shares of MEG at 2.55 (with support of 2.50), and also my FPH which really really is getting me kinda impatient... @ 52.50 average price.

See chart below for the stocks I love to pick up at their ground floor support levels:
1.) RLC - there's a fundamental reason for this..mainly that what's being valued in the price is just the NAV of the malls and hotels. everything else: bpo,housing, office are literally free. To know more, read the Citisec research to be released soon on RLC.

I like to pick it up at a good bounce from its support before of 11.25. So I'm buying at 11.50/11.75

2.) AC - another fundamental play and buying on support levels. 440/450 sigh, I'm raising my ground floors.haha..mukhang nasa 2nd floor na ung prices hehe.

3.) GEO - i love this stock period. I only hate myself for not buying more shares and having sold some too early damnit.

In summary, i think this is gonna be a wonderful week.
- Nix