Showing posts with label CMT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CMT. Show all posts

The Trend is our friend but he is a fickle friend  

Posted by Book Eater in , , , ,






PCOMP is in a short term uptrend. We finally moved with the 32 day moving average. As can be seen from the PCOMP daily chart, the volume is just okay but at least our MACD is higher than the 0 line. We are in positive territory. Also, unlike the RSI and price being divergent in the short term rally last February 2008, the price and the RSI right now have went in the same direction and is higher than 50.

Intermarkets analysis also confirm this uptrend. The US indices right now are higher than the 50day moving averages. The corrections have been healthy pullbacks and should be seen as window opportunities to enter instead of fear. Maintain your risk/account ratio of 2% and risk reward ratio greater than 3 for higher batting averages. Tradermike.net already has it in his blog if you are lazy to look for yourself.

If you also look at commodities, they're all making a sell signal giving us a more sustainable rally this time. Try checking the charts to confirm this for yourself:)

The trend right now is with the bulls. However, he's a fickle friend. He may give a few pullbacks here and there. Just stay on top of your noses.

Here's my stock picks and pricks (those I chose which were wrong):
Stock Picks


1.) AC - Looks like a possible breakout that will test next resistance at 450

Volume - Greater than average by 100%
Price Line-Big White Candle closing near the highs of 420
MACD- made a cross signal and is above zero line
Stochastics - Made a cross signal

Preferred entries: Hope there's a chance to hop in this train at below 420 (any pullbacks) but if not, then 422.50 will be the cheapest play around here.

Target price: 450
Cutloss price: 397.50 (A break of 400).


2.) MWC - Doji pattern, above moving averages of 32,65,124. Volume is greater than average by about 30%, MACD cross buy signal, STS cross buy signal.

Entry: 17.75/18
Target price: 19/19.25
Cutloss: 17


3.) ICT - Just read A bull in a bear market's analysis. It's there already.

Stock Pricks (They hurt like cactus.)

1.) NI - The stock seemed to have been toppish. The volume surge the past days werent warranted. As you can see, the stock cannot go higher than 14.75 pesos anymore. Volumes have declined tremendously, stochastics also gave a sell signal. Even if MACD is at the positive zero line. There's no reason to cling to this stock when there's so much action elsewhere.

Recommendation: Cut your loss if you have any shares. Sell it down if need be.


2.) CMT - this stock is also toppish. The resistance comes at Php1.00, volumes are very low despite the 72 point surge of the PSEI. Stochastics also tell us a sell signal.

Cut your losses








- Nix

0 takes »

Phisix Breakout and Stock picks  

Posted by Book Eater in , , , ,

























I posted Phisix Daily Chart (Zoomed), Phisix Daily Chart (Zoomed Out) and Phisix Weekly Chart so that we can understand the picture of today's markets better.


Short term: We just broke out the downtrend channel indicating a possible short term reversal. Where then will we encounter resistance? Zooming out, we see 3031.


Medium Term: 3031 might be a resistance we have to take out and we will then proceed to a larger rally ahead of us. We can then use the height from 3031 to the low of about 2772 which gives us a short term target price of (3031-2772=roughly 260 pts) or target of 3290.



Long Term: Weekly chart, we are just lying at the 130 week MA and have just bounced from there. Our long term outlook is still positive however, the support lies at a little above 2500 so there are still downside ahead. Caution is advised.

We have to see what happened also at the US indices to confirm this breakout.

_______________________________________________________


Stock Picks:
1.) AC - lower low, higher MACD, white bullish hammer last March 28 with significant volume. See chart.









2.) AP- Looks to make a symmetrical triangle. A breakout with significant volume is a good entry point. Support point of the symmetrical triangle lies at 4.70, breakout point of symmetrical triangle is at about 4.90 Wait for significant volume to arise before entering.


3.) CMT- Parabolic Trigger signal, buy cross signal, diminishing volume through the box consolidation and seeing volumes emerge again. Higher RSI but still not overbought.


4.) NI
-Looks set to breakout of its box pattern and coupled with Parabolic trigger buy signal, above average volumes, RSI going higher, Doji pattern forming a higher low from yesterday.













Notes: Picks were chosen based on possibility that they have yet to rise because most banking stocks like BPI, BDO have already increased significantly. EDC has increased significantly as well. Stocks in this list are "forecasted" to trade higher in the coming days.


-Nix

0 takes »

Stocks on my watchlist/portfolio  

Posted by Book Eater in , , ,





1.) APC - TP .56, Last price = .47, upside= 19.15%




APC's weekly chart definitely shows a downtrendline but for range traders like me, this indicates an upside of .56/.57 which is still possible. This is the resistance. Thus, the recommendation for range traders is to just hold unles it breaks below the .43 supportline.



My trade plan: 1.) I have this stock in my portfolio with cost of .50. I will buy more from a successul bounce from the .43(with volume) so perhaps at .44/.45 i will buy. If not, simply sell all shares because it's a break of two support tests. Also, note that 32 day moving average is also at .43


Sidecomment:


---btw, for those who do read my posts, I've sold my PIP at a loss @ 2.75 because i used the proceeds to buy my CMT @ .90 and .91. There. Even if PIP went up to 3.05,2.95, it's totally fine because I view the decision as shifting from an illiquid and down trending stock to something more uptrend and more certain. there. Also, my selling of CMT @.99 is more of a contingency because the actual support of CMT is at .71 (very very far) which doesn't really suit my trading style. I actually have a plan to buy back CMT, when proven that I sold too early but as of now, the market sentiment for CMT is already going down, judging from daily charts. A failure to create a higher low and a lower volume as well as closing at the low are bad signs. I would recommend people to take profits and go back when the storm passes.



2.) AGI - TP 5.10, Last price = 4.50, Upside = 13.33%


From the weekly chart, AGI is a symmetrical triangle with the most conservative tp of 5.1, but this is going to take us months to get there judging from past runs the symmetrical triangle did.


From the daily chart, AGI hit the parabolic sar, philequity partner has been buying around Php20+ Mil today at costs of 4.45,4.50 etc. What's bothering is that in theweekly chart, prices are going up but MACD's still in the negative and even going lower. That seems like a bearish divergence to me. However, there's incredible volume buying AGI up to 4.45-4.50, a continued rise will make me a believer inthis. Support line is at 4.3,4.2




- Nix






0 takes »
Older Posts

Archives